Monday, May 11, 2015

Another good session, but a really tough deep-stacked decision - WARNING, LONG POST!

I had the opportunity to play Saturday night, so I jumped on it.  Lately, I've been able to get in no less than one session a week, and sometimes 2 sessions during the week.  Things are rolling along at the 'Shoe - the players are back, but the room was not full.  Baltimore Horseshoe's poker room has approx. 25 permanent tables, and they probably filled around 15 of them, including the remnants of a $350 buy in / $20K guarantee (which they had enough players to cover the guarantee).  My buddy Josh was up there playing during the day, while we had family things in the Poker Meister household - soccer for one of my daughters, a weightlifting event for one of our family friends, etc.

By the time I was free to drive up to Baltimore, Josh was on his way home.  We were discussing his session and he started talking about some of the players; one particular player was a fish and dumping money by the fist full.  He told me the table to look for, and wouldn't you know it - there was immediate seating at the very table.  Moreover, it turns out there I sat in his very seat.  Armed with information on the key players, I knew this would be a huge jump start to my session - and I wasted no time in getting to work.

The very first hand, I looked down and saw 89o and decided to limp from mid position, along with a host of 3-4 players (including the fish described above - from the BB).  Flop comes 3 T J.  Looking around the table, it appears there's little interest in the flop, so I lead for $10 into $15.  The fish calls as does one other caller.  Turn pairs the board with a J and I lead for $30 - I get a fold and the fish calls.  River is a 3 and the fish is doing the "fold hold" as I start to carve out chips - I bet $55 and he flashes AK for the missed gutter and mucks.

A.  Nice no-raise from the BB.
B.  Nice no-bet from the flopped gutter + 2 overs.
C.  Nice showing your cards.

According to Josh, this player calls any and all raises - you can value bet the crap outta him.  I saw him make all sorts of weird plays - raising Q8s from the BB, throwing in $8-11 raises with 5 limpers, etc.  Just comical mistakes that leave me shaking my head.  I almost busted him when I 3bet his JJ open to $12 with my KK to $55.  He called a Q 3 3 $65 flop bet but folded my $155 turn bet after about 5 minutes of hesitation :-(.

I built up a significant stack throughout the night, busting a different fish when the table started to die down and become a rock garden.  I was close to packing it up when a drunk guy (or who I perceived to be drunk) came to the table with $500.  I'm sitting on around $800 at the time, FYI.  Before even hitting the chair, he threw out 3 red chips to Mississippi straddle to $15 (the rule in the 'Shoe is you can straddle between 2x the BB and 5x the BB).  So there he is, first hand, throwing in a straddle for max, and I'm to his right as last to act.  I think he had 2 or 3 callers and bumps it to an unreasonable amount - $85 or something.  They quickly fold and he scoops up $30 - 45 first hand!

He continues to do this with differing amounts throughout the night, probably raising about 80% of the hands to unreasonable sizing - and words his $500 up to around $700 without going to showdown.  The bets would get heavier on the flop and turn, FWIW.  I had tried adjusting by limping my premiums and laying in wait for his raises - he disappointed me when I had KK, limped for $3 and he overlimped.  Another fish, though, failed to let it go and raised to $18 with his whateverhehad...  I trapped one caller in there and pulled the 'ole limp / re raise to $75 (I think if memory serves me...).  The drunk realized what happened, and chastised me for laying in wait for him and quickly folds, while the original raiser just calls and the mid caller folds.  Of note, this particular fish and I have lots of history.  He knows that I'm a value bettor - I value the shit out of my hands, and he's found out the hard way quite a few times in prior sessions as well as this current session.  Also of note is the fact that he considers himself "life up" on poker since he's won and been involved in numerous bad beat jackpots - I was a few tables away from him the last time he hit the losing end of one a few weeks back at the 'Shoe for a $~4K payout.  Anyway, this guy plays like he doesn't care about the money - he gets off on bluffing pots and stealing, and would rather call a bet and be wrong than fold a pot and be bluffed.  All of that said, the flop comes 2 2 5 or some such garbage and he checks to me.  I carve out $100 and he raises me all in for $120 more (or something like that).  I obviously insta call and flip my KK - the board runs out clean (I don't know what "clean" is in this case, but there were no Aces) and I scoop, bringing my stack up to over $1K.

Meanwhile, my drunk friend to my left is continually aggro'ing it up - and the players are all in fear (including me) with his unreasonable bet sizing.  The final hand I'll share is the title of the post, which is where I couldn't pull the trigger:

I'm in the BB with his UTG straddle to $12 - I complete (as did the SB) and the drunk raises to "this much," which is 5 red - $37 total.  SB drops and I call with KcQc.  Flop is an awesome 8c9dJc and I check.  He leads for $30 and I snap, not wanting him to get wind that I caught a monster draw.  I feel if I hit the any of my draws I can get paid.  Turn is a 3d putting 2 flush draws out and keeping my gutter.  He leads for $66 and I call again.  The river is a Ks. giving me top pair with QT being the flopped nuts.

Josh and I discussed this hand afterwards - and he suggests that I bet an "anchoring bet;" i.e. $5-$15 so if he raises here, it's in increments of whatever i bet.  I think that's a great suggestion for future hands - but in the hand I checked once again to him.

He tells me he's all in for $559.  [GULP].  I hadn't seen him *EVER* do this, especially against a player that has him covered.  W....T.....F....??!??!?!?!?!?!?

Let's review: I have top pair / good kicker on a draw heavy board with a crazy / erratic player on my left.  He's not folding, only betting, and at this point I'm not sure he's truly drunk though he is drinking.  Now, I've made hero calls like this before - but not for such a large amount of money.... sure, 1 buy in, 1.5 buy in... at 1/2 - and more times than not, I'm good in those spots.  But this is 2 buy ins, more than 2x the pot, and it's at 1/3 for close to $600!!!!

GAWD I WANT TO CALL AND WIN A $1500 POT!!!!  So, I started talking with him.  Since you can't flip your cards over at the 'Shoe, I verbally told him what I had (mistake on my part, but measured mistake - now he knows he can push me off future hands because the dollar amounts are so big I won't call my top pairs).  On the contrary, though, I got the reaction I was looking for.  His face completely dropped and then went to a light, confident air.  Now, the problem with my read is that he's drunk, and exacerbating the situation, he's gay (I think).  His mannerisms are sloppy to begin with, but adding in the effeminate affects confuses me and compounds his "drunk vibe."  Tough to describe - but I have to deduct points from the confidence in my read since I'm not sure how drunk he is and what is baseline behavior for a drunk - if he is indeed drunk - or baseline behavior for a gay man with a potential flair for the dramatic.  In other words, my read says 100% yes - call - based on body language - and I almost called immediately.  Then the other shoe dropped, so to speak...  my logical brain kicks in and says "HOLD ON A SECOND POKER MEISTER!!!!  WHAT THE F*** ARE YOU DOING???  I KNOW YOU'RE THE ONLY REASON YOU'RE STILL HERE AT THE TABLES AT 1AM ON A SATURDAY IS TO BUST THIS FISH.  [Caps off, because 1, I don't refer to myself in third person when thinking, 2, I don't call myself Poker Meister, and 3, I don't think in terms of caps lock] - You're going to call of for DDDDDEEEEEEPPPPPP stacks with a pair of Kings, second best kicker.  No 2 pair, no set, no straight, no made hand.  There are so many hands that his wild player can show up with which have you beat.  What are you doing?  Are you seriously going to call here for $600 when you have $130 committed?  Aren't there better spots?  Yeah - there'll be better spots to get your money in when you're WAY good!  Wait for those spots!"  After about 5 minutes of thought, I fold - and he flips up 62dd for a turned busted flush draw.  I throw up a bit in my mouth.

I couldn't get anything to stick within the next hour, and compounding that misery, the fish bled off all $800 of his stack to the table.  Some dumb lady who sat down with $100 in seat 1 lucked her way into a double, then another double, and a final double for $800 from this guy.  It killed me to see that - and it killed me to see that I should have been done at 1am after busting the fish for $600!

If there's any light at the end of my friggin Rob-sized post, 'Shoe is giving me a promotional $25 single bet chip each week.  I had a nice shiny yellow chip burning a hole in my pocket and I threw it down on Blackjack - one hand - one $25 free bet.  No clue what I'm doing.  I didn't even know where to put the bet - I had to be helped by a cute chick to my right!  I don't think I've played Blackjack since I was 22 which is close to 20 years ago!  Anyway, I was dealt AKcc and hit a Blackjack straight away!  Got paid $37.50 - tipped the gal the $2.50 pink and walked away with an additional $35.  I think that was more exciting getting free money like that than actually winning during the poker session!

K - that's it for this post.  It's ridiculously long (that's what she said)!

32 comments:

  1. In situations like this I will always go with my first reaction. If I loose so be it.

    The fact that it is a larger amount should not affect the logical conclusions. Oh well! We will get him next time.

    Nice to see you are able to put in a session or two every week. I am planning to build my roll before my WSOP trip as well. Let's see how it goes.

    GolfPro

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  2. Ahhh, the lure of free money . . . It's only a matter or time, PM, before the two of us are playing bar-top VP with our sweet, sweet free play!

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    1. I felt like such a fish having NO CLUE how to bet at the tables... I'm a donkey!

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  3. is there a cliff notes version of this post???

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    1. The short:
      1. Finding tons of fish in Baltimore.
      2. Against a mega aggro fish, I river top pair but can't call because his bet is so large.
      3. I got $25 of free play coming to me each week for the month of May!

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    2. SWEEEEEET!!!!!!!! thx also do they have Mountian Dew?? or Baja Blast ??

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  4. Good post. Long is okay if it's interesting (like this one was).

    Regarding Derby Lane, yes the dealers know all the regs, but I didn't get the feeling I wouldn't get a fair ruling. Just another poker room. Of course, I play mostly tournaments and the rules are pretty well spelled out.

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  5. Thanks MOJO & anger. Dunno about the Dew they keep. When I played at Derby Lane, it just felt too "home-game like," unlike Hard Rock which always feels professional. Can't quite put my finger on it, but perhaps playing into my imagination was the fact that walking into the Derby parking lot felt like I was taking my life into my hands - not saying that Hard Rock felt better or safer, but it felt more casino-like...

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  6. never realized that you played both bad and scared. u shouldve been making big bets and raises earlier in the hand with the QKclubs and then u wouldnt been so quick to fold.

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    1. Tony - Do you really think I played bad and scared? Against this player, he's always running a potential to do something unexpected - like he did. Are you committing stacks with a gutter + FD? Are you committing not 1 buy in but 2+ buy ins with a gutter + FD? If you're ready to do that, you're a far better player than me but I suspect you have a much tougher time parting with that kind of money - particularly since that's your life money. In my case, it's not my life money, but my strict poker roll - even with that - even with the fact that I can afford to lose $600 on a hand without a problem - I still folded!

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    2. if i were down for the day and this was my one chance to get out of the hole (and didnt want to have to be forced to play machines to get even) i would call or bet allin so fast--and all your readers are 100% positive im being honest and would overcome any fear

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    3. Ok - so Tony, what if you're up $800 for the day instead? Is this also a snap call all in with TPGK? I'm trying to figure out how you can snap call off 2x buyins for $600 which should be a big amount of money to you! Do you normally call of stacks with top pair? How often are you good here? Do you normally call of overbets to the pot with top pair?

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    4. If TBC things you played it wrong, you must be doing something right.

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  7. I am not faulting you for folding Kings with second best kicker. Why throw away money when you can wait until you are sure you have your opponent crushed. In my poker room there are many players who like to over bet the pot because they do not care about the money. Its the way they play and you have to adjust for it. Its the part where you feel sick because he showed you the bluff. I mean that is the whole point to playing the game. I mean if you have a strong read on someone then you can not complain if your read was right but you failed to back it up. That is the whole essence of poker.

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  8. I'd CR the KQ to start building the pot, you have a ton of equity and you want to play a big pot against this guy

    As played, the river is probably close. Don't hate folding to this massive overbet, but I would probably be c/r'ing that hand near 100%.

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    1. Are you calling off if he ships the c/r on the flop or turn? Also, I think I miss a ton of value if I do spike a T or club and push him off the hand prior to it coming in. Obviously 20/20 hindsight, but I don't think he ever slows down at any point and I stack him just the same rather than letting him off lightly.

      I obviously pot control and win the pot outright potentially, but my thinking at the time (and now) is that if I c/r him during the hand, there's a >25% chance he ships what would be a solid 2x buy ins on me, killing my hand (I don't think I can call off on what I presume to be a draw).

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  9. Tough spot. Thinking back to when I have been in spots like that, I remember getting bluffed off my hand as well as making the correct fold when someone lucksacked a hand. I think the real mistake you made was revealing what you had.

    Dang -- this is why poker is such a great game!

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    1. So I am on the fence about that too. If I bust him then & there, I have no problem showing my hand. (Second thought, I guess it's kinda obvious since I'll show my hand to win regardless). However, that move is such a reliable tell - try it next time you have a really tough decision to make. Look at the guy's reaction and watch to see if his face totally drops like he's been shot in the chest. The reaction is so genuine & unmistakeable. You obviously shouldn't abuse that tell, and make sure you're using it against the correct people. The look is the look of horror and shock, and it's worked every time for me (even in this hand, where the read was correct but the ultimate decision was incorrect).

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  10. If I had any advice for you, it would be to follow your instincts. But that is a lot easier said than done.

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  11. I should also add that you were held back by the way you value money. For guys like you and me, it can be hard to think of money as just chips, but that is ultimately what is needed. I remember when I was still fairly new, I lost $250 or so playing in an underground game and was happy that it didn't bother me. I told my pal that it felt like I had moved up to the next level. Losing $250 before then would really upset me, but this time, I wasn't phased. Of course, if I lost $1,000, nowadays, it would rock me, mentally, so while I may have leveled up, I still have a way to go. So, that's it. You just need to level up to the point where losing your $800 stack does not bother you.

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    1. I wish I could lie and say the dollar amount did not bother me - but it in fact, did bother me. However, I don't know that it played as big of a role as calling it 200BB. My thoughts, on that related note, were "how many hours does it take to make this 200BB call up if I'm wrong given my average hourly rate?" That question played a much heavier factor and helped dissuade me from the call. Another factor playing into my psyche was "would I feel better going home up $1500 or up $100 for the night, when I was up at a peak of $800 and currently sit at around $600?" In other words, does the sting of the loss hurt more than the additional win?

      All of those factors, plus my logical side said "fold." It does indeed tear me up though that I almost said call when I saw his reaction - and that I should have gone with my read.

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    2. I totally understand this thought process. I can lose $800 without feeling to bad about it. I mean, all things being equal, I'd rather not lose it. But, in the end, it's not a huge deal. But, when I play poker, I track my results. Part of the fun of playing is to see whether, and by how much, I can beat the game. So, while the money may not be a huge factor, being down $800 on my results IS. As you mention, how many hours would it take to make up for it had you lost the hand . . .

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  12. But seriously.....Wow, very tough situation. I don't blame you for not calling off two buy-ins with just top pair, decent kicker. That's a tough one. I'm sure I would have done the same thing, which probably doesn't make it right.

    It's very typical that someone who is loose overbets the pot huge to get a better hand to fold. That certainly leans to calling. But if he caught a lucky two pair or whatever, you'd be really pissed that he maybe he was so clever as to make an overbet to look like a bluff to sucker you in.

    But I have a couple of questions for you....which do you think would have made you feel worse after....If you had called and lost all that $$$, or the way you felt when you realized you were bluffed off the winning hand?

    Then.....how do you feel about the guy showing you the bluff. Obviously, this is useful info for next time you play against this guy, but, would you just assume he not have shown, and left you feeling that you may have done the right move (or at least you can convince yourself of that), or knowing for sure that you made the wrong play in this case?

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    1. I actually don't think it affects me one way or the other. It would eat me up either way; I was so on the fence about hero calling that his showing the bluff only confirmed that I was totally correct to have been on the fence. I actually prefer that they show when I make a big laydown because I can get a sense of completeness / closure.

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  13. On the flop, I'm fine YOLO getting this in with so many outs.

    It sucks if you get shoved over on the turn on a brick. I wouldn't worry about what to do facing a turn raise on a brick - on the flop though. Either line you take, it sucks bricking off. I wonder how the hand plays differently on the king river if you take an aggressive flop/turn line. Finally, the one line we haven't discussed is if you actually lead the flop. I think there's a lot of merit considering that line.

    I know going to battle with a draw/marginal hand kind of sucks against these agro players who are going to give it away eventually. But you want to fight to get their money before someone else at the table does. That might mean pushing some 60/40 edges instead of waiting for them to put the money in completely dead.

    I love having my first c/r or flop raise against these players being somewhat light (whether it's a draw or a stone bluff), so that the second time you do it they are literally never folding (and that's when you try to show up with it).

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  14. I agree with your decision too. While I felt he was bluffing, I also felt he might have actually had AK on that hand just as easily and then you spend the night kicking yourself to sleep for calling off most of your stack with TP 2nd best kicker. Its just a hard decision and while the fact you were sitting on a nice win already shouldn't factor into your thinking, it always does to me. The sad thing was that he donked it off later. But anytime I can book a nice win is fine by me.

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  15. One final thought, only a fish never gets bluffed off of a winning hand.

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  16. Just seeing this now but there is a lot of discussion both in the post and in the comments about the size of the bet. While that is understandably a consideration it really should be trivial if you are properly rolled for the game. All that stuff should just be noise and you should be focusing on the appropriate +EV decisions. So I would be trying to narrow his range in some way. It may be impossible to get as tight a range as you will get with other players. But something and then we can analyze our equity in this spot.

    As for the hand..I think your flop and turn line are fine especially given the fact that he has no fold button. River check seems standard too and then we have to make some reads and do some calcs. A lot of this will be based on physical tells. I call here some and fold here some based on some reads.

    .playing this HU OOP against a fish is fine if we are willing to embrace some variance. It seems like you weren't willing to call here based largely on the variance.

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    1. So far as Tony's response, LOL - I agree - totally disregard. The conflict for me comes down to my read disagreeing with my logic. I should have went with my read but gave it less weight due to this guy's drinking, which ultimately led me to fold. I don't have a problem with any of the lines I took, either. I think if I could change one thing, I probably bet the river in order to avoid a tough decision. But even then, I don't love that because I miss a ton of value from his bluffs - as evidenced. I still don't know, 2-3 weeks later, whether I should make the call in this spot.

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    2. I agree with other Josh that I'm typically playing these types of hands fast against aggrodonks by check-raising the flop like always. Then I would be leading the turn since we know he'll float the check-raise quite a bit. If I improve on the turn I bet less, whereas, if the turn is a brick I bet more to increase the chances that he folds. If I nut the turn, I'll check as I think any bet I make from this point forward will not get him to spaz out against me. He'll have to do that on his own and it sounds like he will a lot of the time if he senses weakness.

      You've talked a lot about maximizing value by inducing the donk. I commend you for thinking this way and you have to believe that every donk is not leveling you and this really is the path to a higher win rate. When you get to these forks in the road, you need to remember that the lines you take will cause people to do things that are uncharacteristic. It will also not be an easy road either. If there are concerns about the money, I think we are all better served in talking about it more candidly as it seems to be the biggest leak in the bucket in this hand. I didn't get that you were concerned about getting outplayed or concerned about your logic with the hand, so it seems to me your read was spot on and you logic was sound.

      That is why I think we should shift the conversation to talking about the money. We've talked a lot about this subject over the years and we all have some deeply ingrained feelings or lack thereof about money. Basically, we all need to work through some kind of relationship with it to break through as a better poker player. So to get to the root, we're going to need some depth here about what your goals are, whether they be monetary, personal, etc. Without that context, many of your decisions will be impacted yet under the surface and the insightful analysis that is had on this blog, loses a lot of its potential value.

      So where do we start? I say with your bankroll. If you were super-rolled for this game (say, 100+ buy-ins) would there be any difference in the complexity of this decision? If yes, you are just going through the normal challenges that most of us face in growing a bankroll until we become properly rolled. If not, than we know the issue is external to the game of poker and we have a bigger gap to bridge. Jordan hit on this earlier the energy should go into desensitization of the money.

      So...which is it?

      What is it? Why

      because that's what bad players do.

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  17. OH and lol Tony's logic about calling when he is stuck. As usual that is the epitome of fish speak and really adds nothing to the discussion.

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