Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Overall report & AC report

Things have been fairly quiet around here - and for good cause.  I've been fully engaged at both work and school, and coupled with the way I've been running at the tables lately, I've been passively avoiding sitting down (as opposed to actively refusing to play, I simply haven't been rushing out to play when I get a free opportunity).  This little run bad (past 2 months exactly) has seen me set over set someone only to get runner 4 flushed, run my 2 pair into a backdoored flush, and have all sorts of bad stuff happen.  Interestingly enough, though, during the 6 sessions I've played over the 2 month period where the run bad has occurred, I find myself down "only" $1200 - 6 buy-ins.  I say "only" because it feels like so much more.

It feels like I can't win a session if my life depended on it.  More often than not, my sessions will end in frustration of being coolered somehow or some way.  I don't feel like I'm playing poorly, but I do feel like I've been cold decked frequently.  People are nutting on my constantly, against my value hands.  I should be crushing 1/2 and right now, it's crushing me.

Atlantic City

The Meister family generally stays at the Tropicana when we go up to AC.  Note that we go up to the hellhole (AC, not necessarily the Trop) MAYBE once per year.  The kids get to go on the beach, we can walk the boardwalk, and they can go shopping at the outlet mall area while I can get in a bit of table time.  I also don't have to clockwatch to deal with the 45 minute drive home when I'm playing at the Chuck; my room is a mere 5 minute walk / elevator ride upstairs.  Since it was raining this past weekend, I opted to play at the Trop's poker room.  For a Sunday night, they had maybe 2 1/2 games running and 4 2/4 limit games.  I was kinda in shock; I figured it would be busier than that for a Sunday summer night.

I sat down to the cast of rocks and donks and was able to spot the regs with ease.  On a first name basis with the dealers, my first reg was a mid-aged woman with 2 dogs at home.  I think she fancied herself much better than she actually was, frequently moving her stack in with top pairs and rarely getting called.  In all fairness, perhaps she was a bit tilted by the donkey in seat 10 snapping off her 3bet shove ($11 raise called 2 ways and she 3bet/ shoved $100+) with 2 2 PF (he had ~$50 total) - 2 on the flop natch sealed it for him.

My next 2 hands in my history involve both of these players, although individually:
I introduce myself to the table by raising the CO with AQo (3 limpers, I popped it to $15 and get 2 callers + fancy lady who is to my right).  Flop misses but has 2 hearts; 8 4 4.  I cbet $30 and fancy lady player calls.  Non-heart Ace on the turn and she open shoves her remaining $50.  I think for a bit and determine that she doesn't have a 4, so I call.  She flips Ah2h immediately and I'm very happy to see that I'm way ahead; 80% to the win, 2% to the chop.  Of course, 4 on the river has us chopping and she comments that I should be glad that I didn't see a heart...  yeah...  glad...

A few hands later, I limp along with a host of limpers - A5ss.  Flop is A J 4 - 2 clubs and aggro Asian leads for $15 into around that size pot.  Donk in 10 calls and I come along.  Turn is a 5 and donk checks to me.  I decide to take the lead, ensuring that I charge for the donkey's club draw - I bet out $40; Asian dude calls as does donkey.  River is 2c and donk open shoves (lol) for $23.  I think I snap here (maybe incorrect because I'm reading him directly for a club draw) and Asian dude folds.  I'm shown Q8cc and concede the pot.

2 hands, shitty results.

I tread water, get to break even and contemplate leaving when, of course, the following happens:

KTss UTG+2 and I limp.  It folds all the way to the SB, who comes along and the BB, and ABC player raises to $12.  I call as does the SB and we see a flop of QsJsJx - OESF draw.  Checks to the BB who leads for $20.  I think for a bit and opt to call instead of raise here.  I can see what develops on the turn, but I can fairly well put the ABC player on a tight range; he's never gotten out of line in the hour I've played with him - always shown the nuts or very close to it.  No need to knock him off the hand if I can even get him to fold AA or KK.  Best case, he holds 2 red Ace's and I can stack him with a straight flush over boat.

Turn is a beautiful 9h.  Not the 9 I was looking for, but completes my straight.  BB leads for $30 and I again don't want him to go away.  I think a raise here forces him to fold, so I opt to flat the $30.  I also want to draw to that straight flush rather than folding out my opponent.  At this point, the board is pretty scary for AA, KK, and he's showing extreme weakness based on bet sizing.

7s on the river and I now have a flush to trump my straight.  However, he now leads big for $80.

What do you do?  Why?


  1. Might help yo know stack sizes but I think he is not really repping a lot that beats us...basically QQ and JJ are the only hands that given your read he should ever have that beat us. Would he barrell through with AA? Don't know the villain but I suspect most 1/2 players will just go to the mat with AA since its the nuts. Given such a narrow range that beats us I probably just call since he bet all three streets. If we are super deep I think a case can be made for raising this river.

    Remember we should be playing against ranges not specific hands. If he shows up with QQ it's not as though we made a bad call against his range necessarily.

  2. You are toast. He definitely has QQ or most likely JJ based upon the tenor of your post. Quads would be the the cherry on top of your crap sandwich. The $20 and $30 bets are early value bets on a made hand. The nine and the spade nade every hand and the $80 is the hook setting. He either has QQ and hopes you have a jack. Or has JJ and hopes you had a hand like you did.

  3. Oh I still call. Crying of course. Not enough info on this villain

  4. Interesting hand. Would he have raised to $12 with a weak suited ace? From your description of him, it doesn't sound like it.

    Would he have bet the flop with QQ or JQ? He's got nothing to be afraid of, so why not check a street and let you catch up?

    Still, seems like he has to have at least a boat. His pricing on the flop/turn seems like he was drawing you into calling with a draw. Then, when the flush hits, he pumps up his river bet because the hook is in.

    It's a boat or he turned a hand like trips into a poorly timed bluff (he can't represent the flush there because it's two easy for YOU to have been drawing to the flush.

    If he had a bare J I'm going to throw up.

    Disclaimer: I suck at poker.

  5. Did I miss the result of this hand?

  6. No - I haven't posted the results yet.

    The guy turned 9's full with his flop cbet. He effectively 1 outted me; he held 9d9c. I think I suck at poker; everyone else sees this hand and I totally miss it. The part that kills me is that the analysis is completely right: he shows no fear of the obvious flush and essentially baits me by leading big into me, figuring if I lead I can fold to his check raise, or I'd check behind.

    FWIW, I think this is the closest I've ever been to the bad beat - 9s would have given him quads vs. my straight flush.

  7. Interesting. I thought his bet sizing on the turn was funny. $12 pre flop and three callers ($36 or so); then $20 on the flop and your call ($76); and then only $30 on the turn. There's $140 or so in the middle on the river and then he bets more than 2/3 pot. His bet sizing could mean nothing; but, giving him some credit, it really seems like he put you on a flush draw, baited you, then went to value town on the river.

  8. Yeah - in retrospect, which is why I posted this blunder of a hand - had I thought about the way it all went down, I think I could have found the fold button here.

    Reviewing the hand:
    He cbets the flop, which is fairly standard.
    He continues on the turn after I flat the flop - in which one draw gets there. The 9 was the more hidden of the draws (with the flush being the more obvious). He doesn't bet big, saying to me that he's concerned about the paired board, but still wants some value with his AA/KK.
    When he bets into the rivered 3flush, this should be a clear fold. He's shown that he's not afraid of the flush, not afraid of the paired board, and not afraid of the straight. He likes his hand and is trying to value it.

    I get it. Roles reversed, if I know my player has a made flush on the river, I'm likely check / raising in this spot instead of leading. I think I get more value from that move, because most players (like me - :-( )are not folding a made straight / flush hand.

    A similar hand came up last night where it was raised PF to 12 from an ABC player. I called with JTo. Flop comes KKQ and I fold the cbet of $35. Turn 9, river A - they get it all in on the river with original PF raiser holding AA and other player flopping KQ - Kings full vs. rivered Aces full (for a ~$700 pot - $400+ in on the river).

  9. Besides QQ and JJ (and apparently 99) do you think he makes this play with AsJx? He's got a lot of blockers to the real nut hands and could be trying to merge bet the end. I could see the $80 bet with AsJx, KJx, or J10x.

    The good thing for your hand is J10x is slightly less likely because you hold blockers - he can't have KsJx or Jx10s.

    The bigger question here is the fancy play - do you think he calls a raise to 50 with 99 on that board, and is there any is this a hand you really want to go to war with when he makes it $150? You're both playing solid, and that's the big consideration here.

  10. By the way, love these WWYD posts. This actually makes me want to hit the tables again this weekend!

  11. I still don't mind the river call...ranges, ranges, ranges is what poker is about..maybe I don't play 1/2 enough to know the players but I would think AA, KK, AJ, AQ, KJ are all in his 3 barrel range.

    1. Yeah; I think the problem is that it is very likely I am beat here. I got stubborn in the hopes he turned his hand into a bluff, but I'm sitting on a very obvious flush draw. How often is he betting $80 on a bluff like that from his position given the prior action? He knows what I have, and he wants value. I agree about ranges, but I think the chances are far more likely that I'm beat here.


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