Thursday, November 17, 2011

What would you do? #240 - Straight on a paired board

Bodog $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $262.59
CO: $97.00 - 28 / 6 / 1.9%3bet @ 135 hands / 3.8 AF; inf aggression on turn & riv in 16 & 9 turns & rivs
BTN: $168.03
SB: $99.00
BB: $37.05
UTG: $124.50
UTG+1: $94.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with Js Qh
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 8h 8d Th (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, CO calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $8.00, CO raises to $39.50, Hero ???
Click to see results

I think I'm making a huge error by calling the turn and folding the river; therefore the river call is automatic.  I also think an an argument can be made for folding the turn, as villain has clearly established a boat- or straight- type hand with the paired board.  I can't put him on TT, though, as I've been opening somewhat liberally in late position - a fact he's well aware of.  However, I'm also thinking in terms of 98o.  It's just such a small part of his range to play like this.

I think an argument can be made for flatting the turn vs. shoving the turn, if you opt to continue with the hand.  Flatting the turn, like in this example, allows the villain to shove the river.  However, there are so many bad river cards that can come up.  I don't know... what do you think?

Hero calls $31.50

River: ($94.50) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $50.50 all in, Hero calls $50.50

Final Pot: $195.50
Hero shows Js Qh
CO shows 6s 6c
Hero wins $192.50
(Rake: $3.00)

2 comments:

  1. My question is what were you trying to hit on the turn when you floated the flop. You hit the nut card for your hand - if you don't have a plan on the flop for what happens if you hit, why call the flop (except to hit a brick and put in the huge raise to rep something like 98/87)?

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  2. I think your analysis is pretty good. IMO, you have to decide if he can play this way with trips, and if he can, you have to go with the hand (esp. given the dynamic you mentioned). There are more combos of trips than boats.

    I also like calling the turn and checking the river (with the intention of calling). Maybe I'm biased b/c I saw the result with that line, though. I think shoving the turn might let him escape with his non-boats.

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