Wednesday, September 1, 2010

What would you do? #172 - Facing flop shove holding overpair (JJ)

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter


UTG: $53.27 - 23/7 / 22% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.1 AF / 145 hands
UTG+1: $14.75 - 19/4 / 6% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.6AF / 193 hands
MP: $29.41
CO: $24.90
BTN: $26.70
Hero (SB): $32.40
BB: $6.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with Jh Jc
UTG raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.75) Tc 9c 7d (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $3.75, UTG+1 raises to $14 all in, CO folds, Hero folds, BB folds, UTG folds

Am I making more out of this than I should be?  Easy fold here, right?  I have him polarized to monster / air with the air being AK.  It's just such a weird shove; $14 into $6?   At minimum, he has 25% equity against me, but I'm weighing him far more heavily to AA,KK.  Auto fold?

Final Pot: $11.25
UTG+1 wins $10.70
(Rake: $0.55)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 9/01/2010 08:00:00 AM
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5 comments:

  1. matt tagSeptember 1, 2010 at 9:47 AM

    Fold.

    I've got him more weighted towards sets on a nasty board. The only hand I see you possibly beating here is 88.

    I don't think many players flat AA/KK in UTG+1 and risk a multiway pot. I can see more QQ (if they assume UTG is raising with a very strong range).

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Poker MeisterSeptember 1, 2010 at 9:53 AM

    I'm running into these types of situations where I'm questioning myself at this level. The VPIP/PFRs of the players here are simply polarizing. An UTG open when he's opened 4% of his prior 193 hands?

    I was thinking about this last night: the players here are *very* predictable; perhaps its worth it to fold every time to aggression and only stay in the pot when I can control the action. I realize it'll be a leak, but will it be that big of a leak when I can take down the pot at will or get people calling me at will?

    I'm running a 28/20; limping all small pairs and suited connectors / gappers. AND I'M GETTING AWAY WITH IT!

    ReplyDelete
  3. YakshiSeptember 1, 2010 at 5:06 PM

    Fold. He's a very passive player and suddenly he is uberaggressive. He likely has a set, sees a drawy board, and shoves because he doesn't want to face a difficult turn decision. Just my two cents

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Poker MeisterSeptember 1, 2010 at 5:22 PM

    It's just strange... I've seen this type of behavior before from other players at Bodog: $2-$3 pot, flop is somewhat threatening, player shoves full stack $23 into pot. It's like WTF? The only person calling is a hand that beats him, so I don't get it - I just don't get it.

    ReplyDelete
  5. matt tagSeptember 1, 2010 at 5:46 PM

    don't try and understand it, there is often no explanation. Last night I had a player call a preflop iso raise, and then a solid flop bet, with 92s. The flop was A35 rainbow (I had AK).

    ReplyDelete

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