The case of the overplayed Aces?

Let me preface this retelling of last week's session by saying I *NEVER* run good at MGM National Harbor.  Since it opened around a year and a half ago, I've run like dog poop.  I have no problem frequently getting my money in good, but my hands simply don't seem to hold.  Ultimately, this bout of poor like leads to my strong preference to play at Baltimore's Horseshoe.  There, in addition to having less variance, the games seem easier and I can often get my money in with my opponent drawing stone dead, in effect cutting out variance altogether.  Enough of the sob story at MGM, let's get to the meat!

I decided to hit up MGM because my buddy Josh was in town on business for the week.  We decided to play a session together, go for dinner, and generally catch up a bit.  He was working in Tyson's Corner, and I work out of Sterling -- both in Virginia; therefore, it made the most sense to forge through the traffic and venture out 30 miles to MGM rather than travel the ~60-70 miles to Live! or Horseshoe.  Although we didn't wind up at the same table, it was good catching up with him in the car sitting through traffic, and eating dinner.  We're finally sitting at separate $1/$3 tables and about 3 hours in, the following hand comes up:

I have about $1000, and the villain in the hand has around $900, so we're VERY deep.  I'm in the SB and the villain, from MP, raises to $18 after a limp or two.  I'd been watching the villain for awhile; he seems competent, and more ABC.  Never once in the three hours did I see him get out of line, nor he me.  Most of my money came from the 2 aggro Asian guys to my right who were trying to out-piss one another.  At this point, there was only one of those guys remaining, and he was on his 5th or 6th $200 buy in (trips to the ATM EVERY TIME!!!!).  Anyway, as I was saying, MP raises to $18, gets called in 4 spots and action is to me in the SB.  I look down at two Aces (no idea the color).  Interesting; $100 in the pot and action is open.  I think a raise is 100% in order here, no?  How much?  A mid-pot sized raise seems good - I 3bet / squeeze to $100.  Given my deep opponent, I think he can technically call a wide range because he's getting decent implied odds, but reality-wise, he's going to manage losses and fold a wide range including small pocket pairs and smaller than AQ-.  I realize I'm out of position here, and I don't want him to fold THAT wide of a range, but I also don't want him in there with any two cards because that will prompt everyone else [and their brothers and sisters] to call along side.  I'm looking to isolate here and narrow ranges of my opponents in the hand.  Ultimately, it folds back to him; he thinks for a bit and calls.  The remaining Asian dude shoves his remaining $157 and action is back to me.  I pause for awhile, but I've already done the math - I can't reopen the pot.  I look at the dealer and say, "raise," with a smile on my face, knowing full well that the dealer will decline the request.  He shakes his head "no," and repeat more firmly, "raise!"  He verbally says, "no, you can't do that," and I chuckle a bit, making the call, as does the table at large (including the villain).  The villain makes the call and we see a flop with $368 in the middle.

Jc 9c 5 flop.  I'm not worried about a club draw - again I don't remember the particular suits of my Aces, but I have an unimproved hand that's going with its preflop valuation.  I want to continue betting here, as I want all the money in the middle.  I'm a bit concerned about him holding a pair of Jacks and less so 9's or 5's, but that's a very small portion of his overall range and should not stop me from trying to get all in.  I also don't want him to fold the flop, so I opt to bet $205, little more than half pot.  He thinks & calls.  I pretty clearly know what he has at this point: QQ (less likely) or KK (more likely).  We see a turn in a wildly unmanageable pot or $778 with $595 effective behind.

Turn is let's call it a deuce.  Not sure the color, but it wasn't a club.  I rip in the last ~$700 and he reluctantly calls.  This would be the worst slow roll in history if he has a set.

Thoughts?  Overplayed Aces or make your read and go with it?

I wait for the blank river and flip over my Aces for the scoop, one of the bigger pots I've won in recent years.

The ongoing saga of pocket Kings, or "Is it wrong to set mine?" -- oh yeah, and an angle shoot (sorta)!

I am still befuddled that my Kings never hold up.  Over the past 8-10 months, it seems as though every time I am dealt KK, I have no problem getting my money in WAY good, only to have my opponent win the pot once all cards are dealt.  I don't get it; whether I'm a 90% favorite or "as little" as a 75% favorite, my Kings simply do not hold'em.  During my most recent session, instead of getting all in only to be sucked out on, I paid off -- and paid off size-ably.

Some background, first.  I got in a rare Friday night session.  I've been vacationing recently, 2 and a half weeks in Israel with my wife's extended family (15 of us in total) traveling throughout the countryside.  Then, we had a week of work before last week journeying off to Playa del Carmen along the Mayan Riviera off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.  Although there have been some problems with a few resorts using spiked alcohol, the resort we stayed in only offers top shelf alcohol and very high end food.  If any of my readers are interested in a 5 star vacation, I highly recommend El Dorado Royale, where we stayed (it was our 3rd or 4th time staying at the series of properties).  I digress; we got back late Thursday night and I was set for a Friday session.

I was seated fairly quickly; there was a "long-ish" waitlist for both the 1/3 and 2/5 games, but I saw a few empty spots sprinkled throughout the room on the 1/3 tables.  The floor was being fairly inefficient in announcing the open seating, so I asked for permission to find a seat and sit down.  The floor granted me the privilege and I found a decent looking 1/3 table, letting them know to take me off the list.  At my table were a list of characters: a 60 -ish gentleman who I nicknamed "nuts," because he was only showing down the nuts and only raising PF with the nuts.  His bet sizing was terrible, so I felt it was only a matter of time before his AA or KK gets cracked by draws or otherwise.  There was another competent player, who I'll nickname "angle" for reasons evident later in this post.  Another player, "red" was a red-headed guy who was fairly competent, and then there was a pretender who thought he was a pro but I thought was suspect because I caught him numerous times limping where he should have thrown in a standard raise, and played far too timidly to appear to turn a regular profit.

I quickly opened my range, realizing that the table was on the tight side; they were mostly the type who would limp in and try to see flops for cheap.  If I raised (my standard raise is typically $15 + ~$3 per limper), the players would fold and I'd see and instant profit for no sweat.  In a more rare case where someone was emboldened to call, I'd simply cbet a K high flop with my missed AQ, or cbet a 2 8 6 board with my pocket 5's to take down a decent pot.  These players started the night playing tight.

Red started establishing himself as a bit of a station; he seemed to commit that if he limped, he was calling a reasonable raise to see a flop.  That reasonable raise consisted of some logical amount between $15 and $25.  At the time of this hand, I'm sitting on around $500 and he has me covered.  I look down at KK and after one limper, I raise to $17.  It folds around to Red who calls, and everyone else folds.  Heads up, we see a 2 9 Qhhh flop.  I do not hold the Kh.  Out of position, I cbet $35 which he flats.  The turn is an offsuit 5 or something, and I lead for $75.  He flats once again.  The river is an offsuit Ace, which I'm very unhappy about.  I check to him, and he thinks for a bit before betting $100.  Given the odds I'm getting here, $100 into a $220+ pot, I begrudgingly call... especially when he seemed to size up and think about why I would check an Ace river before deciding to bet and potentially represent an Ah flush draw.  I think I gave away my hand on the river by not making a blocking bet, but I think my blocking bet is going to be around $75-100, the same it costs to call his bet.  Anyway, I call and am shown T2hh for a flopped ten high flush.  Good game for a first in call of $17.

I reload $100 and wait.  I'm playing from behind most of the rest of the night when I limp my Q9 in late position after a host of limpers.  The flop comes 7 8 T, rainbow.  Decent flop, with a draw and redraw to the nuttiest of nuts.  Angle is out of position to me and bets $15 -- I'm one of 2-3 callers for my open ender.  Turn fills me in with a 6 and he bets large this time: $65 or so.  A heart draw is also put out there as the 6 and 8(?) are now hearts).  I'm left as the only caller.  I consider a raise, but figure it's very obvious with the 4 straight.  The river is a 2 (can't remember whether it was a heart) and he stacks chips ($105 to be exact) in his hand and starts to move them forward and over the line.  He holds them there for a second without releasing and I toss in a chip for the call after believing he has bet (forward motion and over the line).  He sees my somewhat snap call and then starts claiming he did not bet.  The dealer, who is a competent dealer, tells me the rule at MGM: forward motion with a carve out is considered a bet.  He did not release, therefore it is not a bet.  I did not get all upset, did not throw my drink, did not start yelling or causing a ruckus.  I was visibly unhappy, and definitely had a few unpleasant words to the tune of, "whatever, you have to look at yourself in the mirror every day.  If you're comfortable, good for you."  That was the end of it; he had an obnoxious comment back, but a few hands later racked up and left.  Ho hum; lesson learned.  I'm going to have to be more obnoxious in the future when calling with the 2nd nuts and truly wait patiently, and ask "is that a bet?" before making a call.  Again, lesson learned.

The final hand of the night involves Red.  He's got rolled up Aces.  He raises to $10.  Mid position re-re-raises to $25, reopening the betting.  Player to my right calls, I call with 88, player to my left calls.  Back to Red.  I 4bets to $135.  I have $500 effective.  Original 3bettor ships for $129.  Player to my right calls.  I think for a bit, but I believe this to be an unprofitable call, as I'm folding all non-8 boards.  Player to my left thinks for a long time before calling.  Flop comes 8 6 2hh and I'm not too happy.  Red bets $125 and gets 1 caller.  He checks the non heart turn and bets $125 on the river to get a fold.  He shows (obviously, given the action) AA and scoops a nice pot.  It shoulda been me...  I should have gotten revenge for his earlier T2hh bullshit.

Despite the crap above, I turn a decent profit.  It should have been a bigger night, but I'll take what I got.

The need for topping off your stack

As I was waiting for a 1/3 seat to open to start my regular Thursday night session, I decided to sit down at an open 2/5 in order to be included with the ongoing hot seat drawing.  I was seated at 6:05, and the drawing is held on the quarter hour.  Unfortunately, I didn’t hit the hot seat, but I bought in for the minimum ($300) and proceeded to win two nice pots during my short stay, walking away +$368.

The game at 2/5 was good.  I actually considered forgoing my 1/3 seat when it became available, but I quickly concluded that the games are far easier at the lower stakes and the money is very similar.  Less risk, similar reward makes the move a more logical choice.  A quick recap of the one hand of note which I was floored:

Straddled to $10, I find myself in the BB with 99 with my initial $300 effective.  There are a host of limps when action gets to me.  I’m definitely raising here and looking to get it in if need be.  With around $60 of dead money in the pot already, this seems like a prime opportunity for an easy pick up.  I raise to $75.  I’m surprised when 2 callers – one very loose player, and another unknown, make the call.  Flop comes 9 2 7.  Easy game.  I check and it checks through.  Turn is a 2.  I decide to try to get some money in, but want to make my bet appear weak and stab-like.  I bet $75 and they both fold.  Boo!  Perhaps if I see the river, maybe they hit top pair or any pair?  Meh.  I still stand by the play; the loose player can have a wide range here.

I get called for the 1/3 game, and pocket the winnings, sitting down to the new table with $313 to start.  It’s a mixed table with 2 regulars who recognize me, and I tread water for the first few hours.

One hand of note: Prior hand plays in, where I raised to $18 with AJo, get 3bet to $60 and fold.  Regs have definitely seen this, know I can lay down to a 3bet, and view me to be reasonably tight / aggressive.  Anyway, I’m sitting on $245 and I raise one limper to $15 with AQcc.  I think there may have been one or two calls between the more aggressive / somewhat creative reg who looks down, thinks and 3bets to $75.  Folds around to me.  I’ve already decided that this is a good squeeze spot for the reg to pick up some dead money – a move he’s capable of doing – so I shove over pretty quickly for the remainder and it folds back to him.  He folds JJ face up.  Nice pickup of a decent pot with no flop.  I start on the road to building my stack to around $620 without many confrontations.  I’m getting a lot of respect and players are folding to my cbets / raises.  I’m not hitting anything mind blowing, just playing my regular game.

Another hand of note:  I limp A5hh from the BTN after 3 other players.  Action closes and we see a beautiful flop of 2 3h 4h.  Checks to me and I bet $6 into $13.  A mid-60’s, somewhat loose middle-Eastern gentlemen calls as does another player.  Turn is a 2, pairing the board.  Checks to me and I bet $15.  Call from the middle-Eastern guy and I’m heads up.  River is an interesting 3.  It’s a smallish pot and I’m not happy with the runout.  He leads for $40.  I make an awfuckit call and he shows 95o for a missed straight draw / chop.  Go me.

Anyway, table drops down to 4 players and I debate packing it in.  A group of guys who’ve never played before sit down, as does an annoying drunk guy.  Drunk guy proceeds to turn his starting stack (no clue what it was) to ~$400 when the following happens:

3 limps and an average 1/3 player raises to $7.  Caller and drunk guy from SB calls after a speech.  I look down at QQ and decide to 3bet to $45.  Folds around to original raiser who calls, as does drunk guy.  We’re playing $328 effective, as the drunk guy is the only noteworthy player.  We see a 3 7 9 hhh flop.  Sucky, as I don’t have a Qh blocker, but certainly workable.  Drunk guy checks to me, and I want to value bet any heart draws.  I carve out $125.  Folds to the drunk guy who fumbles around for a bit and raises to $250.  I think he can have a very wide range here including top pair and redraw hands, so I don’t want to just call.  I shove over and he snaps me off with the mighty A6hh.  Drawing dead, my stack is now down to about $185.

I’ve been pondering this hand, thinking about whether I can truly put him on a flopped flush, and I’m still mixed in my analysis.  To the negative of my thoughts, drunk guy has not been particularly aggressive, he’s somewhat aware of his hand strength.  We also talked about what he was going to do when he raises me, which I think should have been a huge tell.  However, to the positive, we’re talking about a drunk guy who previously bet me $5 that a Porsche 928 was a rear-engine car – a bet I won immediately thanks to a quick Wikipedia lookup (FWIW, the 928 was Porsche’s first front engine car, and the company has since offered the 924 / 944, 968, Cayenne, Macon, Panamera).  I think I discounted his tells on account of his drunkenness.

I was able to get retribution when I top off $100 a few hands after the aforementioned hand (hence the title of the post) and open from the BB [again] to ~$22 with KK.  I get around 3-4 callers including the drunk guy.  I can’t remember the exact details, and they’re not all that important.  Flop comes T T 4dd.  Drunk guy checks to me and I cbet $65.  He’s the only caller.  Turn is a 6 or something.  I shove my remaining $186 and he hems and haws.  He starts talking about how he wants to make the call to give me back my money and that if he hadn’t won such a big pot from me in the prior hands, he’d definitely fold his hand.  He makes the call and shows QQ.  Clean river (noteworthy too, since I haven’t been doing very well over the past few months with KK) and I’m almost back to where I was prior to the QQ hand. 

In summary, quite a rollercoaster, but I eke out a decent profit at the 1/3 game to close out my session.  Had I not topped off, I would have missed out on an additional $100, and the profit for the session would have been 33 big blinds less.  In an eight hour session like the one I played, that $100 top off was worth $12.50 / hour.  These little edges make a world of difference to the hourly rate.  If you’re not topping off, you better have a good reason for not doing so (i.e. tougher competition, consistently getting your money in at high variance spots, etc.).  Otherwise, you’re missing out on additional profit that surely makes a difference to the bottom line.

Decent night, interesting hands...

Last night was an interesting night; I'm not running great, but I'm definitely playing better and feel like I'm more in tune with the game.  I felt like helping my last night's results was the fact that my table had more fish than usual.  I'd say 7 out of the 10 players were fairly fishy, with a constant 1 or 2 being extremely fishy.  I ended up stacking one poor guy around 4 times... he kept donking away despite the actions / game flow.

First hand is from said guy from above.  He sits down and is aggro from the start...  I'm like - "look out; strap in and get ready!"  He starts out by raising his first 3 hands, one of which was a 3bet, taking all down without a flop.  He's opening with exploitative raise sizes, consistently ($20 opens, $30 opens, etc. and bombing all 3 streets)  I actually think I saw him go to showdown with very weak holdings - 84 or something - prior to the first hand where I get into it.

I limp QJo from UTG and as scheduled, he raises to $18.  All fold to me and I call.  Flop is Q 8 3.  He leads for $40 and I call.  Turn is a 7 or something; I check / he leads for $65.  I call again.  River is a blank and he shoves all in for $150 or close to.  I snap and he shows QTcc; I scoop and he's mystified, not understanding how my kicker played for my scoop.

Next hand, I raise ATo for $23 from the BTN into 6 limpers, including the aforementioned guy.  He calls along side a loose player who's getting extremely lucky; we'll get into that loose player in a moment.  Anyway, flop comes A J 9 and it checks to me.  I lead for $40 and get calls from both spots.  Turn is a K and it checks to me again.  I put out $75 which the fish snaps off, but the loose player folds (what he later claimed to be A5o).  River is a blank and I'm sure this fish is calling any bet, so I ship which may have been around $120 effective.  He snaps it off and I flip my pair of Aces; he auto mucks (I assume he didn't even have an Ace).

3rd hand against him, I limp / call 34cc along side 3 others against his $18 raise.  I call for a host of reasons, though mainly, he's spewing and I want to be in as many pots as I can against him.  Clearly the other cold callers feel the same way, and since I close the action with my call, I am getting a nice price to see a flop.  Flop comes all rags: 3 2 7 rainbow.  He leads for $40 and I'm 85% certain I have the best hand so I call.  Turn is a 7, completing the rainbow board, and like a clock, he ticks away to $65 on the turn.  My certainty of the best hand has now improved to 95% in my mind, but I don't want to raise him off his bluffs, so I call again.  River is a 3 improving me to bottom boat (3's full of 7's) and now I have a snap call situation if he opts to bluff his third street.  Without fail, he does - $120 or so - and I snap; he shows 95dd for a missed(?) pair draw(?).  He cannot comprehend how I call the flop and turn with a pair of 3's.  I cannot comprehend how he can't comprehend my play...

4th and final hand is a bit dirty, I have to admit.  I think I'm making a so-so call, but I'll present the evidence first:  I again raise to $25 from the BTN with ATo.  I'm facing 6 limpers - and the fish is one of 'em!  I get called in around 3 spots; we see a flop of J 9 3ss.  I hold the Ace of spades.  It checks to me and I cbet $65.  The fish is in EP and he thinks for awhile before shoving $160 effective.  It folds back to me; $325 in the pot facing a $100 call.  It's close; I have 2 backdoor draws - the straight draw + flush draw, in addition to very possibly having the best hand against this particular player.  He's spewy and dumping chips right & left - to me in particular!  He wants to get me.  After it's all said and done, it's $100 to win $325, so I make the call.  Board runs 8 7 rainbow and I'm shown J 8 for the turned 2 pair.  I flip the ATo straight and he's through the roof.  He immediately exits the table in disgust.

Long post, sorry.  However, here's the hand of the night; a "what would you do moment."  I look down at KK UTG and open to $15.  2 callers; a tight straight forward player and the aforementioned loose player (both in the blinds).  This loose player calls a wide range PF, but tightens up a bit post flop; he's not a maniac and generally knows where is in the hand after post flop play. Still, he calls wide with poor odds, but he's been rewarded quite frequently, stacking with hands like 97o against $20+ PF raises, etc.  Anyway, the flop comes 3 6 9 dd and it checks to me.  I lead for $30, the tight player calls for less ($28) and the loose player calls.  He has me covered, playing $250 effectively.  The turn is a 7 and he checks again.  I lead for $60, putting him on a flush draw, but he check/raises me to $150.  What would you do?  Shove or fold?  Thoughts? 

Double play at the MGM

I had a rare opportunity to play two sessions in a week!  Checking in with my wife, I found our schedule to be open over the weekend.  We spent Friday night together, but I decided to go play some poker after dinner on Saturday.  Each of the kids had an activity planned, and my wife was exhausted, so I figured I'd head on over to the MGM to see if I could continue my streak.

The wait list on a Saturday night was around 30-40 deep for a 1/3 table, but ultimately, I was seated within 30 minutes.  I made my way over to the table and found it to be fairly loose / passive.  The common raise seemed to be around $6, with someone getting "out of line" coming in for $10.  There weren't frequent raises, so if a raise did occur, it meant a player had a hand.  FWIW, I did not follow that trend; if I had a hand, I raised at least $15, but my larger raises did not get the table's attention.  If there were limps, those limpers were absolutely seeing a flop -- regardless the cost.  On the other hand, if I was facing a raise to $6, I generally saw a flop, regardless my holdings, hoping to cooler the AA / KK / QQ / AK / etc.

Midway through, I found myself down about 2/3 of a 100BB stack on the following hands (the third hand kept me from putting additional money on the table, fortunately):

1. KQo, I raise to $18 after 2 limps; one of the limps, a weak / loose player calls, and the other limp folds.  This guy is in every hand, and by the river has the best of it.  He's getting lucky as hell, not playing well.  Anyway, the flop is K 2 4cc.  I cbet for $25 and he calls; he can show up very often with clubs here and I want to get value.  Best case, he has a worse K, but either way, he likes his hand.
   
   Turn is an off suit 8.  No reason to slow down; I lead for $55 and he calls once again.
   
   River is an off suit 9.  My thought is a fairly straight-forward line: if he's on clubs, he's always folding to a bet, but there's a chance of a bluff.  I don't feel like there's too many Kings that call for $18 but beat KQ, and if he slow played a set, good on him, I think I'll have to pay him off if he bets.  I just don't see a huge gain in leading for a 3rd barrel with a 1 pair hand.  Finally, I feel like his body language signaled that the 9 helped him.  I'm watching him while the community cards are dealt, and he definitely sat up straighter in his chair.  Out of concern / pot control / inducement, I check.  He stacks $50 and puts it out.  Perhaps I need to think about calling more in the future rather than just snap calling like I did, because he shows me K9 for the rivered 3 outter top two pair.  Yuck.
2. I tread water for a bit and am dealt Ks7c in the BB.  I check my option into around 7 players.  The flop comes K Qs 7s - Kings up!  I lead for $15 and get called in two spots; another weak passive player and a new player who I read for tight.
   
   Turn is the Ts.  I check / call the $30 turn bet from the weak passive player, as does the new player.
   
   River is the 8s.  I check once again; the passive player checks to the new player who leads for $50.  I think for a bit, with my Ks backdoor flush and finally make the call.  The passive player folds AJo face up, and the new player shows As4s for the nut flush.  Another yuck.  This night is turning out not to be my night.
3. I'm dealt 78ss on the CO.  I've been experimenting with widening my opening range from late position, so I open to $12 from the BTN with no limpers.  I get both blinds to call, the SB is a mouth breather, and the BB is the guy from the first hand above.
   
   We see a flop of 2h 5d 6d.  They check to me and I cbet $25.  Only the SB mouth breather calls.  No specific reads; he can have anything here - he's limped KK, etc. the whole night & when he opens, it's to around $6.  I can't really assign him a range at this point, but if I were to guess, it'd be an overpair -- 88+, but 6x is in the range as well.
   
   Turn comes a 9h and the SB checks to me.  See the nuts, be the nuts.  2 flush draws out there & I have an interested caller.  Continue to build that pot!  I put out $55 and without much hesitation, SB calls.  I think he's solidly on an overpair.
   
   The river completes backdoor hearts with the Ah and the SB checks again.  Unless he hit a backdoor heart draw with something like 6x hh, 3x hh, 4x hh looking for a gutter to fill in, I have the bona fide nuts.  I'm 99.99% confident here - how much value?  $180 in the pot, and I want him to have a thoughtful call, not too hard, but not too easy.  I settle on $125, which seems to be right in the middle.  He hems and haws for a seemingly minutes, mumbling about that terrible Ace on the river.  He asks me if I'll show if he folds, and I say absolutely not.  Only way I'm showing is if he calls.  I start to get the sense that he is moving towards a fold, so I start to talk with him.  I tell him, "the Ace 100% did not help me - I swear on my children!"  This puzzles him even further.  I consider showing him one card to reinforce confidence in his call, but I feel like I'd give too much of my hand away by exposing.  I also feel like he & the table would start re-thinking my raises if I show them a 7 or 8 that I raised with, although in retrospect, they could put me on pocket 7's or 8's.  On the other hand, what is my goal in showing a card?  To get him to call.  Does willfully showing him a 7 or 8 induce him to call me, given my aggressive action on all 3 streets with a straight out there?  He can certainly discount a rivered flush, but I feel like showing a 7 or 8 pretty clearly points to A7 / A8, 77, 88, or 78, with a healthy slant towards 78.  Therefore, I decide not show.  Unfortunately, he eventually mucks and we move on to the next hand.

I continue to balance delicately, wondering whether I'll ever pick up a hand instead of a constant stream of second bests...  Close to the end of my session, I look down at 6 6 in the SB and complete to 6 limpers; the BB checks and we see a bingo flop of Kd 6d K [finally!].  I have no doubt at least one of the 7 players in the hand (excluding me) has a King, or, at minimum, drawing dead to a diamond flush.  I want to flush both parties out; see who's betting & who's calling.  Then I can get a grasp for my target audience.  Therefore, I check my flopped boat to a mid position player who leads for $10 into the $20+ pot.  It gets called by the weak / loose player described in hand #1 above; all else fold.  Now, I read one of these guys for a K, and one for a diamond draw...  I think with 2 players in, this is a good spot to check / raise the nuts for the following reasons:

• I'm getting additional money in with both players drawing semi dead, coupled with a high likelihood that they'll be paying me off.
• It would be a disaster for the diamond draw to miss by the river, shutting out value, without setting up for stacks by the river.
• With 20/20 hindsight, if the original bettor is bluffing / feeling out the table and does not have a King, he will likely shut down by the turn, fearing a King by one or both of his flop calling opponents.
• Raising and getting more money in the pot will push my agenda.

Therefore, with action facing me, I want to put out a bet that's not too much, but not too light.  Somewhere between $30-40 should do the trick; I raise to $40 with about $40 in the pot (excluding my raise).  Unfortunately, the original raiser folds but the weak passive player thinks for a minute before making the call.  Booyah!  He's on the diamond draw... come on diamond diamond diamond.  Come on diamond diamond diamond!
I get my wish when the 8d drops on the turn.  I feign annoyance and check; the weak passive player becomes aggressive, but not over the top.  He leads for $25 into the $90 pot...  Too little for me!  Gotta keep to my agenda.  I again check raise; this time to $75.  Without hesitation, he calls.

We see the Tc on the river and I have a decision: do I go for big value on the river by leading out, or do I try to go for the ego trifecta badge (in the days gone by of online poker, the online tracking website pokertableratings.com would give players a trifecta badge for an online player check/raising 3 streets) by check raising 3 streets?  I'm so tempted to try for the live trifecta (in fact, I've only seen in once in live poker), but in the end, I can't bring myself to do it.  Seeing a nutted hand go to showdown without a river bet would be so terrible, and I can't count on my opponent to bet river after he's been check / raised every time.  Therefore, I count out what I intended to be $175, but someone ended up being $225 with about $60 behind (he has me covered) -- not quite stacks, but not too far away.  Honestly, I did not realize I made a close to pot sized bet on the river; I wanted him to be able to snap it off without much thought.  After much hemming and hawing, and verbalizing that he has a flush, he decides he cannot fold and tosses in the $225.  It was funny to watch his reaction; I could see the light bulb go off - as if he said, "of course, a full house!"

In retrospect, playing perfect poker, if I had raised to $100 on the turn, I could have gotten stacks in by the river.  Also in retrospect, though, I was worried that if I was wrong about his diamond draw and my opponent had trip Kings instead of a turned flush, he'd be very fearful of that I instead turned the flush and he would consider a fold right then & there.  Therefore, I don't know if there was any way in getting the last $60 to double up...

Final hand of note was within my last few orbits of play:
A competent player opens to [if memory serves] $17 from the SB with one limper.  I look down at QQ and 3bet to $55.  Limper folds and SB 4 bets to $120.  At this point, I flat; we're about $800 deep and I don't want to get it in, therefore I flat the $65 raise.  I think I'm set mining here but not entirely sure - but I'm like 80% behind when facing a 4bet.

Flop comes K J 4 ss and he checks to me.  He's not getting another dollar outta me unless I hit my set on the turn... and even then, I'm not sure I'm going to pay him off.  I happily check behind.  Turn is a blank and he leads for $80.  I snap fold.  I can't envision any hand he holds that doesn't have me beat after 4betting PF.  AA, AK (not so much), KK and remotely JJ.  Thoughts?  I probably should fold to the 4bet?  I spoke with him afterwards to discuss the hand...

For what it's worth, the flopped boat hand was the one hand I needed to push me into the black for the session, to end my ~6 hour session with a come-from-behind win.  One hand can be the make or break for the entire day.  Funny how that works.

Back in Black

It's been awhile since I played MGM.  When MGM opened, I played there for about 2 months straight, moving away from Baltimore Horseshoe.  I figured the benefits of moving my play are twofold: the drive is about an hour shorter, and they give $2 / hour in comps.  The downside is: I give up about $50 in free bets and the players are far weaker in Baltimore.  I wasn't interested in sitting in traffic, and so for the first time in about 2 months, I decided to try out MGM again.

My prior experiences there were the play was very gambly, leading to a higher variance game.  As a result, coming into the session, I found my graph to be a marginal loser; close to break even but still on the losing end.  Just one good session and I'll be in the black... easier said than done, of course; you can't plan winning sessions, unfortunately.

A few consistent observations I've noticed at MGM, which is not necessarily true at the 'Shoe:

• There's usually at least one "good" player at the table
• Play is far more aggressive
• On the aggressive play, there seems to be an unusually high number of floats and preflop raises.
• The players don't give up on hands as easily as other places.
• 3bets are not necessarily respected; players will pay incorrect PF odds to see flops.

On a Thursday early evening / late afternoon, there's usually immediate seating.  Last night was no different; I parked, plugged my car into the free car charger (I have a Nissan Leaf EV), found my way into the poker room and within 30 seconds, was dealt into a hand.  It was immediately apparent that there were 2 good players and the rest were just "there" (read: passive, generally fishy players).  Early on, I realized one player opening very wide from all positions.  The first showdown, I saw him river 2 pair with 76o from an UTG $15 raise.  The second time, an orbit or two later, he shows down 89o from a mid position $15 raise.  Now I have the confirmation I need; it's a pattern (obviously 2 times is not necessarily a truth, but it's a going theory as a minimum).  Next opportunity I get, I'm going to bump his raise and take down the easy moneys :-).

I get my opportunity when he opens from UTG and gets no less than 2 callers.  I look down at KQo, a great candidate for 3betting.  I bump it to $55 and take down the $~45.  Easy game.  A bit later, one of the better players (sitting immediately to my right) who'd been raising fairly often, but not showing down, raises to $15.  I look down at AA and 3bet to $45.  Only he calls.  Flop comes 5 6 8, two spades and he checks to me.  Not wanting to slow play, I lead for $60.  He calls again.  The turn is a 5 or 6 and he checks once again.  I look down at my stack remaining: $137, with $210 in the pot.  One move: all in.  He thinks for a bit and folds.  I'm finally in the black for the session.

A few orbits later, the UTG player, one of the weaker players, opens to $7.  Mind you this is a 1/3 table, so this open is basically a non-event for a live game.  Needless, there are 7 or so players who call, including me with 75o.  We see a 7 5 8 ss flop and he leads for $25.  It folds to me and I raise to $55 (accidentally; I meant to raise to $65 but counted out 2 red chips too few).  It folds around to him and he thinks before calling.  The turn is a beautiful 7 and he leads for $90, which makes no sense to me.  I raise to $225 ($65-70 behind), wanting to make sure we get most of it in while/if he's drawing to the flush and he opts to just call.  The river is an off suit 2.  He checks and I put out the rest of my stack.  He snap calls and is mystified that I have 75o.  That's what you get for signalling a strong hand with a weak PF raise!  I'm left assuming he had KK or AA.

A few more hands transpired that I have forgotten about by now, and I end the session up nicely.  Finally in the black at MGM!