Friday, June 23, 2017

Just a simple complaint about overpairs...

If you don't like complaining / bad beat stories, move along.  This post is a gripe post about the umpteen times I've had a solid winner (i.e. KK, AA, QQ, JJ), gotten it all in WAY good, only to be on the losing end by the showdown.

Most recent in my memory banks:
Last week, I 3bet JJ to $45 and got no less than 3 callers.  The game was wild.  I get it.  Flop comes 9 4 2 two spades and I cbet $120.  Everyone folds except the luckbox to my right.  We have $175 effective and I auto ship the turn 8.  He snaps me off with 82o FTW.  LOL WUT?

This week, I open $25 from the SB with KK after a host of limpers.  I get a very loose call out of mid position.  Flop comes J T 2.  I cbet $65 and he jams for $150.  I snap it off and am shown QTcc for second pair, no redraw.  Turn?  Ten of course.

It seems that ever since the beginning of the year, this kind of pattern has been happening.  Get it in good -- real good -- and get sucked out on.  Rinse.  Repeat.  In the past few months, it's probably happened once every other session, which leads to a significant loss of EV.

The results finally affected my play last night.  Fortunately, I recognized the bad play, and will work to make adjustments and get value rather than shutting out value to take down the pot:

I raised to $25 with JJ in the BB and the same guy from above with the QT vs. my KK calls.  Flop comes 2 2 2.  I cbet $45 and he snap folds.  Bad cbet.  I need to size my bet more like $30-35 to get him thinking about my cbet rather than snap folding.  I maybe need to consider checking but I want to charge for an overcard.  Small mistakes cost money, and the above potentially cost me since it's against a guy who does not fold a pair.

Mental note: don't let results get in the way of maximizing value.

Blog Archive