Tuesday, January 3, 2023

The 'ole Zeebo trick

 File this one under "they never fold a full house," boys...

Admittedly, I shouldn't be arrogant about it, but this guy was just to big of a fish to not shove my quads on him.  However, the story goes as follows:

6-max $10NL, folds around to the fish BTN who decides to limp.  SB folds to me and I raise to $0.65, which the fish, as fish are known to do, calls.

Flop comes a beautiful AA9 rainbow.  Now, it's unlikely the fish is trapping, but it's even more unlikely he connected with this flop.  Therefore I opt to check, and it checks through.

Turn is a Kh putting a 2flush on the board.  I have to start getting some value for the hand, and he's not likely to pay off any hands unless he has a worse Ace (unlikely given that it'll be the case Ace, or the flop check will get him to pay off his Kx hands).  I delay cbet $0.95 into $1.55 and he snap calls.

River is the most beautiful Ac, giving me quads - the only better card would have been a random Kx or 9x in retrospect.  However, with quads, against this guy, I'm not just potting it and calling it a day...  no... this guy has a boat and he'll pay off.  Therefore I ship $8.30 into $3.45 and he pauses for a good 20 seconds before making the call and doubling me up.

Zeebo.  It's good.

Sunday, November 13, 2022

The worst hand history replayer!

 Hello all [or whomever peruses this site after several years of absence]!  Been a long time - been playing on Global and BetOnline.  Moreso BetOnline of late because it allows HUDs and I was running in place with the HUD-less Global.  Not to say that there's no money to be made at that site; there definitely is!  It just takes far more concentration.

Hand of the day is nothing really of consequence but more of a brag post of the villain spazzing out:

Not sure if you can see it, but I steal from the HJ with the powerful 52s.  My opponent, who's been very verbal in the chat box, decides to 3bet me to 10BB.  Mind you we're around 200BB to start the hand so we're pretty deep...  SB & BB fold and I decide to flat and take a flop.  Pretty easy hand to get away from if I miss.  If I hit, I'm looking at knocking it out of the park given how big he talks in chat and his prior hands - he's complaining particularly about my lack of hand quality that shows down and wins (i.e. QT vs. his T8s, or his witnessed turned set of mine vs. my opponent's overpair...)  He's seeing what he perceives as generally fishy play and in his mind he confirms it as he dumps his stack to me...

Anyway, back to the hand: I of course flop magic (would I be posting a folded 3bet pot on the flop otherwise :-) ???).  I lead given his strong-ish 3bet and he decides to jack me to all in (WTF????  Couldn't you accomplish the same thing by just raising a normal amount and deciding from there???).  Needless to say, by the end of the hand, all he's left with is and empty stack while muttering to himself...  At least he'll have a good story!

Monday, February 21, 2022

Continued adjustments

I'm playing a lot of volume online once again.  I'm continuing to play 6max, and playing between 6-7 tables.  The timer on Global Poker is so short that I can't think and move my mouse fast enough to keep up without timing out...  At any rate, I've made quite a few adjustments lately in lieu of seeing the garbage that I get called by.  My thought process is that I've been allowing my fish opponents too much leeway and they can correctly call a lot more the longer their stacks are.

  1. My open sizes when I have limps in the pot has been amped up.  I'm opening .65 for one limper + .1 for each additional limper.  This shortens stack depths significantly and forces my opponents who are looking to limp call into making very large mistakes.  Getting the stack depth down to a 10:1 call instead of 15: or 20:1 is a big change and makes the flopped pots much much larger.  It also makes my mistakes (i.e. shoving AK high into a 7 high board) much more palatable.  To my opponents, in those instances, I look like a huge fish even though they're the ones calling off after limp calling 73o for example.
  2. My 3bet sizing is MUCH larger - with very short stacks afterwards.  A typical open to .3 from my opponent will be met with a response of 1.35 or even 1.45.  An open plus a cold call will get an even bigger 3bet.  I realized my opponents are calling very large 3bets PF, and my 3bet range is usually WAY ahead of their open range.  It's such strange behavior; I've seen some players play a short stack of $4, open and call $1.25 only to fold a fairly innocuous flop.  Seriously?  FWIW, 4bets will go half stacks.
  3. Keep my opens smaller.  It makes me look like I'm in a TON of pots when I'm constantly opening for .3 - which is pretty true.  My opening range is roughly 50/50 their limping range.  If I open, I can usually pick up the pot with a cbet when they miss, frequently when I'm up against a hand that dominates me because we'll both have missed.  As an aside, I believe that I get so many callers when I've opened a pot because they think that I'm over the top aggro and playing too many hands.  Ironically, they're play 74s or 92s or 76o...
  4. Fold out my opens when getting 3bet.  Obviously this is hand dependent, but .3 is sorta a "suck me" bet as an open.  If I'm getting 3bet, the vast majority of the time I'm beat because this player pool is so weak passive.  They're generally not 3betting air though I've caught quite a few who ship it with T9s, etc.
  5. Stealing for .5 when I have a very loose caller in the blinds.  The more likely my opponent is to defend at any cost and c/f flops, I'm upping my open sizing to .5.  Simple cbets will get them to c/f flops.
  6. Out of position opens are always .75 for one limper and +.1 for each additional limper.  If I'm opening out of position (e.g. the blinds) then they're going to pay for it.
It's just such a wild wild west rodeo out there...  One of my poker buddies put it succinctly: they're playing "street poker" where it doesn't matter the cards they're holding...

Second post of the year!  Don't call it a comeback!

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Anybody out there?

It's been nearly 2 1/2 years since the last post!  Holy crap!  Let's see, in that time, there's been a lot of world events and craziness!  There's also been a ton of personal events - which I'll try to detail.

  1. My son is applying to colleges & starts in the fall of 2022!  He's applied to several schools with the goal of majoring in Computer Science, just like his dad!  UPenn, Georgia Tech, University Of Maryland, University of Virginia and Carnegie Mellon are the focus; our collective fingers are crossed that he gets into at least one!
  2. Last post I reported that I was considering purchasing properties with the goal of becoming a landlord.  During the core of the pandemic, we got our opportunity and purchased several properties: two 1 bedroom apartments and a 2 floor condo.  I had the wherewithal to foresee the looming inflation cycle that we're currently going through, so I took on lots of debt to complete the purchases.  Now, of course, I look like a genius; fixed low-interest debt with current and future dollars that are becoming cheaper and cheaper to repay the cheap debt!  I would have liked to purchase more properties but nothing really suited me as far as cost vs. rental return.  Plus, I got tapped out pretty quick purchasing 3 properties in short of a 12 month span.
  3. My father died a few months prior to the pandemic start.  Not a bad thing.
  4. My kids are doing really well academically and socially.  They have the normal anxieties of teenagers, but seem well adjusted though the pandemic definitely took its toll on all of our mental health.  I think we all came out stronger.
So poker: I'm not playing live whatsoever.  I stopped playing with the pandemic, and started again a few months after I was vaccinated, but the delta variant started up and I weighed the value of exposing myself to COVID (I assumed, poorly or not, that the majority of poker players around here lead somewhat unhealthy lifestyles and do not exercise prudent precautions to reduce exposure / evidenced by the fact that I was very much in the minority by continuing to wear a mask at the tables).  Therefore, I stopped live play altogether - and have since moved my game to 100% online.

I've had a lot of success with Global; not only have I improved my game, but also I've learned to become less reliant on a HUD.  I've been fairly diligent about note-taking, watching ranges, and looking for strange behaviors.  I can 6-table at 6max, and find the games to be reasonably soft.  Most importantly, it's fun playing there because my aggression factor is way off the charts compared to the norm.  Most of the players don't know how to handle it, and I find that they default to a check / fold position unless they hit their pair / set / hand, making the game a pretty straightforward endeavor.

Hopefully [no promises], I'll write another entry on the things I've picked up during my current online stint.  To be sure, it hasn't been a smooth or easy road, but the future looks bright and it's only getting better!  Anyway, if I don't post before the holidays, Merry Christmas, Kwanza and [a belated] Happy Chanukah!  Also Happy New Year!

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Considering real estate investment [non-poker]

Still playing online and live, though not nearly with the frequency I once did.  Funny how life gets in the way.

As careers progress and wealth gets accumulated, I find that I'm looking for new ways to diversify my holdings.  From my 401(k), 529 and other side cash investments (mutual funds, bitcoin), I think I'm flush with exposure to the stock market.  Unfortunately (really, fortunately - it's a good problem to have), there is still continuing excess cash flow.  I've been discussing available opportunities with my brother in law, and concluded that we should purchase a property with the intent of becoming landlords via a partnership.

Combined, we have around $100,000 of available capital to deploy (that's the rough number he and I feel comfortable using), and I'm not 100% convinced that real estate is the way to go, but it seems to be the most obvious and easy choice.  The idea is that we purchase a property, start a positive cash flow stream, escrow the cash flow and in a few years, purchase another property while also paying off the first one on the backs of the renters.  Pretty simple.

I'm sure more than a few of my readers have or are finding themselves in similar situations - albeit likely with even more capital.  What are you doing with that cash besides plowing it into the stock market or a high yield savings account?  I'm plumb out of ideas...

Thoughts are:

  • A franchise (which requires a TON of time)
  • Commercial real estate (which I lack education)
  • Beach house summer rental (lower cash flow, but allows our families to use it in the off season)
  • REIT / Real Estate Investment Trust (no control over what the REIT does AND also puts more money into the stock market)

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Donkin' around on Global Poker

I've been starting to play a bit of online poker lately.  Over the past week, I've run into 2 fun little hands:

It's been a fun going so far.  At the current moment, I have no interest in ramping up my playing to anywhere near levels I was doing pre- Black Friday.

I hope all is well [if there are any remaining] blog subscribers.  Things within the blogosphere have certainly changed; the wold seems to have strongly moved to vlogging.  Oh well.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

If you're going to lose a hand, do it spectacularly!

Poker has been terrible for me this year.  I say that tongue in cheek; I've played little more than 5 sessions - if that much.  I've been working a lot lately, going back through last year and, in fact, my overall poker sessions are way down against my prior year(s) averages.  Therefore, I supposed I'm being quite myopic in my overall outlook because of limited data points.  As it stands, I'm in the hole for a couple of buy ins, a situation I'm not accustomed to.  I realize that it's an ego thing and I'm probably being too pessimistic since there are 9 months remaining in the year, but I worry that I'll not be able to catch up on the deficit given the rate I'm playing.  I hate being in deficit territory!

Further increasing my deficit, telling for the title of the post, I'm here in Melbourne, Florida, for work.  As usual, I try to get a feel for the local poker scene, and had an opportunity to play for 2 hours last night at Club 52 @ Melbourne Greyhound Park.

After an up and down ride, I find myself sitting on my original buy in (~$200) - it's a 1/2 game.  After a couple of limps, I raise to $12 with TT.  2 players call as do the original 2 limps.  We see a 5-way flop of T 9 7 rainbow it gets checked to me.  I want players in the pot, and it's very likely I'll get action from this kind of flop.  I'm targeting hands like QJ, Tx, random 8's, random J's, etc.  This board hits a lot of 4 other player's ranges, and a bet with a vulnerable "nut" top set hand requires a bet.  I lead for $35, wanting to keep in the more likely gut shot J's and open enders.  Much to my chagrin, it folds around to the one aggro player who's been hitting the cards like a fiend.  He check raises me to $80 or so.  I'm never letting this go, and the way he's been going, I don't doubt he has a nut-like hand or monster draw (pair and straight draw, overs and straight draw, set, etc.).  I don't want a card on the turn / river discouraging further action from him or me, so I opt to get it in right there on the flop - I shove for ~$180.  He snap calls and immediately flips over 99 for a flopped mid set.  Before I can even flip my hand over, the dealer puts out a 9, his one out, completing quads for him!  This is now the second time in Florida (and the second time in live poker) that I've been one-outted (in 2014 at the Hard Rock / Tampa, I flopped a set of K's over a set of 8's and he also turned quads).  That ended my session on a sour note, further pushing me into loss territory for the year.

Side note: as it so happens, a few of the first round games of the NCAA basketball tournament are going to be played in Jacksonville - a 2 hour drive from here.  As a University of Maryland alum, I love to watch the Terps play, but haven't yet had an opportunity to watch a tournament game up close & personal.  Therefore, I'm extending my trip to drive up to Jacksonville to watch the Terps hopefully win its first round game and move on to the round of 32!  Maybe I'll be able to hit bestbet Jacksonville again?

Friday, December 21, 2018

Few and far between...

I think this has been the longest I've gone without a post.  As "real" work builds up, I find myself playing fewer sessions, and prioritizing poker towards the back of the list of items.  As a point of interest, I am usually good for around 70-80 live session per year; this year I've played around 35 live sessions.  What can I say?  Life gets in the way!

At any rate, I was not traveling for work this week, and I'm off for the next 2 weeks - so I expect I'll have an increased amount of time to devote to getting seat time.  I have lots to do around the house, but I'm going to bump up poker on the 'ole priority list at the same time.  Perhaps you'll see a second post coming in the future?  Who knows?

I wanted to share a hand with you from last night - perhaps it's a bit of a sob story / bad beat boo hoo hoo, but I was questioning whether I overvalued my hand, or maybe I'm being results-oriented.  We're at a 7-handed $1/3 table and I'm in mid position facing an open to $12 with a caller between me and the raiser.  I look down at AcAd and 3bet to $40 with $1200 effective.  I get a call from a very loose SB who actually is not a good player, but seems to frequently get lucky - and the original caller - a player who I respect, somewhat ABC, but can get out of line from time to time.

We see a 3 way flop of Js9s3s and it checks to me.  I lead for $75 into the $120 pot.  The SB gets out of the way (notably donating his $40 from his $~200 stack, LOL) and the original raiser flats.  Hmm...  As?  JJ?  Monsters under the bed?

Turn is a 9x and he checks again.  I continue, believing my AA to be best and lead for $140 into $270 - roughly half pot.  He thinks, then calls again.

River is a blank; 2x I think.  He checks for the 3rd time.  Do you bet?  Check behind?  What's calling you that you beat?  AsJx is the obvious, KK, QQ?  I feel like there's so much more that calls me and has me beat than that I'm beating...  If I bet, I have to be prepared for a c/r and what do I do then?  How much to bet given the pot is over $500 and effective stacks are in play with a bet and raise?

I meekly check behind, throwing in the towel and he flips over Ks5s for the flopped miracle.  Played well?  Check the turn?  Bet the river?  Bet a suck me bet on the river?  $50?  Results-wise, checking the river at minimum is the correct play, but is that the overall correct play?  I think I have to continue to charge for the turn because he has so many draws in his range, and he's played the whole hand like a draw...  Thoughts?  Anyone even reading this blog anymore?

Thursday, June 14, 2018

A trip report from Nashua, NH (outside Boston, MA) and 2 hands

It’s been awhile since I’ve taken a business trip.  As my long term readers (are there even any readers anymore?) know, whenever I get the opportunity to go somewhere new, I’ll try to check out the local poker scene if there is one.  This past week, I had meetings outside of Boston, MA – around 20 minutes from Nashua, NH.  Checking around on the typical sites (pokeratlas, 2p2, etc.), I found a card room that was recently fined, and a continuing card room in operation.  Unwilling to go to a place that was potentially shut down, I opted to check out the Boston Billiard Club & Casino (BBCC).

Before I get into the details, I will give a little background on the New Hampshire poker scene, or more broadly, the NH gambling scene.  I’m not sure when NH received the legal precedent to open card rooms and offer casino gaming, but it’s a more recent (within the past few years) turn of events.  As it currently stands, the maximum bet for the casino is $4, meaning you can play blackjack all day at $4 / hand!  That limit is apparently increasing in the near future, to $10.  On that same vein, the poker room is beholden to the max bet rule; the maximum big blind is $4, meaning the biggest hold’em game offered is $2/4 no limit (none of which were running on a Monday night).  FWIW, besides the $1/2 NLHE game I played, the BBCC was spreading a $1/3 Omaha game.
As it turns out, in order to legally offer casino gaming, the casino operator undertook a concession to contribute most of the proceeds to charity.  That said, other than a sign on the door upon arrival, the feature charity (which changes daily) is completely obscured to the player; in other words, I wouldn’t have known that I was playing in a casino for charity vs. a casino for profit without that sign.  Located in what amounts to a strip mall, BBCC took rake the same way I’ve seen most do it, 10% up to $5 – no flop, no drop.  It offered $0.50 / hour in comps.   Waitress service was terrific.  Seats were fairly basic, as was the table itself, featuring no automatic shufflers (all decks were hand shuffled).  Dealers were competent.  They open at 12pm, close at 1am.  In fact, if I had to nitpick one thing, it would be that buy-ins and rebuys were by runner only; one cannot rebuy at the table.  Although the runners are efficient, I can imagine this could be a problem when the poker room is busy (5 tables were running during the night I was visiting).
As is typical of “new-ish” poker rooms introduced to an area, play was atrocious.  Obviously given limited data (I played one session for ~4 hours), I saw obvious bluffs, poor to terrible pre-flop hand selection and otherwise idiotic play.  For example, I saw a guy call a 3bet of $35 that he opened for $6, with $60 behind holding 23cc.  Obviously, he flopped a flush vs. pocket Queens without the Qc, so he’s a poker genius, but LOL.  This same guy would double through with KJ vs. AK AIPF against the same player later on in the night, and pay me off with a small pocket pair vs. my KK AIPF on the immediate following hand, so nice score for me.
Overall, I had a good night with one or two hands that were “questionable,” which I’ll share below:
  • First hand, I hold 35cc in the CO against a $6 raise by the aforementioned feature player from above.  There winds up being 8 of us in the hand; I opt to call with my speculative hand rather than giving any thought to 3bet / squeezing, given that the fish is clearly calling a 3bet with a wide range, which will cause the trickle-down effect of one caller joining multiple other callers.  Granted, I do have position, but I don’t want to inflate the pot without a purpose, and 5 high is not likely to showdown as the winner.  Anyway, we see a flop of Q J 3, two spades.  I check my pair of 3’s and the BTN bets $10 (into a ~$50 pot!).  I call, as does the original raiser.

    Turn is a 5 and I turn two pair.  The original raiser again checks, and I decide to take control of the hand, leading for $40, as I’m 99% sure I’m ahead at this point and want value.  I’m not afraid of the original raiser; I’m not sure what he’s doing or why he’s still in the hand, but I’m happy he’s still with me.  The BTN immediately folds and the original raiser again calls.  I have plans to check through any river that isn’t a 3 or 5, but I still can’t put original raiser on a hand.  I feel as though if he had a hand, he’d have bet the flop given so many players involved in the hand.  Looking at the hand from his position, I wouldn’t want my opponents seeing a turn / river for free, because if I have a hand I want to get value along the way.  I would be cbetting the flop, and continuing the turn, unlike him, who is check / calling and playing passively.

    That notwithstanding, we see a river of a Queen, leading the final board to read Q J 3 5 Q, rainbow.  He instantly leads for $75.  WTF?  Check / call, check / call, then lead with a board pairing Q?  Nuts or bluff – a polarizing bet, clearly, but it seems like such an odd spot for the nuts given the passivity.  I don’t waste much time in calling my 5’s and Queens, and he say’s “nice call” before flipping over K6o (WTF????).  I show my 5’s and the table is pretty astounded (really????  I suppose he could have been bluffing with a pocket pair, but it’s just such a weird spot to bluff there!).
  • Second hand is against a tighter player, who’s pretty passive post flop but will open PF.  At this point in the night, I’m raising a few hands in a row and look down at AJcc on the BTN.  I open to $17 after 4-5 limps, and he’s the only one who calls in early position.  Flop comes AdQd3x and he checks to me.  I lead for $27 and he check / raises me all in for $160 effective.  Thoughts on a passive post flop player who all of a sudden gets aggro after seeing me become aggro PF?

    Click to see results

    I couldn’t put him on AA, QQ, AQ or AK, as he would have raised PF without a doubt. I absolutely can put him on 33 here – that’s an easy limp / call hand from EP.  I can also put him on a ton of diamond draws. The check / raise seems so out of character for him, though. If he’s going for value, wouldn’t he either lead or c/r to $75-80 and shove the turn? Why bomb a check / raise all in? I eventually wind up calling him and he shows QTo.
Again, as I said, idiotic play…  Idiotic players…  Just weird spots for bluffs that make no sense.

Monday, May 14, 2018

The case of the overplayed Aces?

Let me preface this retelling of last week's session by saying I *NEVER* run good at MGM National Harbor.  Since it opened around a year and a half ago, I've run like dog poop.  I have no problem frequently getting my money in good, but my hands simply don't seem to hold.  Ultimately, this bout of poor like leads to my strong preference to play at Baltimore's Horseshoe.  There, in addition to having less variance, the games seem easier and I can often get my money in with my opponent drawing stone dead, in effect cutting out variance altogether.  Enough of the sob story at MGM, let's get to the meat!

I decided to hit up MGM because my buddy Josh was in town on business for the week.  We decided to play a session together, go for dinner, and generally catch up a bit.  He was working in Tyson's Corner, and I work out of Sterling -- both in Virginia; therefore, it made the most sense to forge through the traffic and venture out 30 miles to MGM rather than travel the ~60-70 miles to Live! or Horseshoe.  Although we didn't wind up at the same table, it was good catching up with him in the car sitting through traffic, and eating dinner.  We're finally sitting at separate $1/$3 tables and about 3 hours in, the following hand comes up:

I have about $1000, and the villain in the hand has around $900, so we're VERY deep.  I'm in the SB and the villain, from MP, raises to $18 after a limp or two.  I'd been watching the villain for awhile; he seems competent, and more ABC.  Never once in the three hours did I see him get out of line, nor he me.  Most of my money came from the 2 aggro Asian guys to my right who were trying to out-piss one another.  At this point, there was only one of those guys remaining, and he was on his 5th or 6th $200 buy in (trips to the ATM EVERY TIME!!!!).  Anyway, as I was saying, MP raises to $18, gets called in 4 spots and action is to me in the SB.  I look down at two Aces (no idea the color).  Interesting; $100 in the pot and action is open.  I think a raise is 100% in order here, no?  How much?  A mid-pot sized raise seems good - I 3bet / squeeze to $100.  Given my deep opponent, I think he can technically call a wide range because he's getting decent implied odds, but reality-wise, he's going to manage losses and fold a wide range including small pocket pairs and smaller than AQ-.  I realize I'm out of position here, and I don't want him to fold THAT wide of a range, but I also don't want him in there with any two cards because that will prompt everyone else [and their brothers and sisters] to call along side.  I'm looking to isolate here and narrow ranges of my opponents in the hand.  Ultimately, it folds back to him; he thinks for a bit and calls.  The remaining Asian dude shoves his remaining $157 and action is back to me.  I pause for awhile, but I've already done the math - I can't reopen the pot.  I look at the dealer and say, "raise," with a smile on my face, knowing full well that the dealer will decline the request.  He shakes his head "no," and repeat more firmly, "raise!"  He verbally says, "no, you can't do that," and I chuckle a bit, making the call, as does the table at large (including the villain).  The villain makes the call and we see a flop with $368 in the middle.

Jc 9c 5 flop.  I'm not worried about a club draw - again I don't remember the particular suits of my Aces, but I have an unimproved hand that's going with its preflop valuation.  I want to continue betting here, as I want all the money in the middle.  I'm a bit concerned about him holding a pair of Jacks and less so 9's or 5's, but that's a very small portion of his overall range and should not stop me from trying to get all in.  I also don't want him to fold the flop, so I opt to bet $205, little more than half pot.  He thinks & calls.  I pretty clearly know what he has at this point: QQ (less likely) or KK (more likely).  We see a turn in a wildly unmanageable pot or $778 with $595 effective behind.

Turn is let's call it a deuce.  Not sure the color, but it wasn't a club.  I rip in the last ~$700 and he reluctantly calls.  This would be the worst slow roll in history if he has a set.

Thoughts?  Overplayed Aces or make your read and go with it?

I wait for the blank river and flip over my Aces for the scoop, one of the bigger pots I've won in recent years.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Craziness during WSOP at the 'Shoe and a hand history

Life gets in the way of poker constantly.  Whether it's my children, my wife, my parents or friends, life takes priority to a game.  Therefore, I've been trying to shoehorn my poker playing into smaller and smaller time slices.  Over the past 2-3 months, I think I've played maybe 3 sessions, and although online poker is more readily accessible, it's kinda been the same thing for my online game.

Anyway, I was able to play last week -- while the WSOP circuit tour was in town.  For a Thursday night, the action was great and the money was free-flowing.  There were a few easy marks, but overall, my table was nothing to be feared.  So long as one could isolate a little "roller coaster-ing," one could profit heavily.  In other words, embrace variance and the profitable results will shine.

I've been considering the hand I'm about to share - from a 1/3 game at Baltimore's Horseshoe.  It was a sizable pot, and I always tend to evaluate those with greater scrutiny:

I'm in the UTG+1 or 2 (can't remember) and limp A4hh (~$1500) along with 3 others in position.  It gets around to the BB (~$500) who raises to $20.

The BB is aggressive and wonky; he's somewhat on tilt from a prior hand where he got it all in with K2s against AA for $130 on the flop with a gin Q22 which runner-runnered Queens for the AA scoop.  He's been quietly containing his emotions for about 2 hours, but his aggression is way ramped up.  He's in his late 50's / mid 60's and appears to be kinda dumb.  His image of me is early 40's, tight, aggressive, sitting on a big stack by only showing down big holdings, which is why I'm sitting on my $1500 stack.  Ultimately, with my call, the 3 others call rather quickly.  ~$100 in the middle.

We see a flop: A 3 6 rainbow (I think there was one heart, so straight and flush backdoor draws are available).  He checks and I, with my backdoor(s) and top pair, decide to lead for $45.  At the time, it seemed like a mandatory bet.  I don't want to see it get checked through, and I want to see how the other 3 players respond.  I'd love to take down the pot with a middling Ace, but I also want to thin the herd going into the turn.  The plan is that if I run into resistance from any of the other players, I can be somewhat certain I'm behind, and I'll plan to check the turn to give up control / pot control with significant action and/or bricks.  FWIW, I realize the other players can be holding 3x or 6x types of hands and a $45 bet into a $100 pot is purposely not a very imposing bet.  I want those 3x and 6x hands to stay involved.

I get folds around to the BB who just calls: ~$190 in the middle.  I initially put him on an under pair (KK, QQ, JJ specifically) who is just stubborn.  He also could have Ax (all combos of Ax for his raising range from the BB beat me), but I discount this thought since I think he charges the flop instead of check / calls.  As a factor, I don't think he raises 24/ 23/ 56 / 45 / etc. combos out of the BB (nor any position for that matter, but not to the degree of certainty as out of the BB), as I simply haven't seen that from him in the 4 hours I've been sitting with him.  At this point in the hand, given his play, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead.  I plan to check all turn cards and bet river, as I think if he does indeed have a QQ, KK type hand, he can't pay off back to back streets, but will more likely pay off a flop bet / turn check / river "smallish" $75-$100 bet.

Turn is an off suit 7, completing the rainbow, but this time he takes control of the hand and leads for $75.  I reconsider my options and reconsider his range - I'm surprised at this line.  I still weight him heavily towards KK, QQ hands, but I guess I need to weight his Ax hands a bit heavier.  I'm still fairly certain I'm ahead, but I'm not loving his bet and my resultant options.  Call, raise and fold are all on deck for options:
  • Raising will effectively fold out his bluffs and under pairs -- I only get called by better hands (i.e. all better Aces).
  • Folding leaves a lot of money on the table against his "bluffs" which I mentally still include KK, QQ, JJ, TT.
  • Again, I'm not as confident, but I think calling makes the most sense; the 7 gives me 4 of my backdoor outs, plus the two pair outs of hitting a 4.  Therefore, I have 7 outs going to the river -- 14% in the worst case that I'm currently behind.  Therefore, I call: $340 in the middle, with ~$350 effective behind... $75 to win $265 against $350 additional implied; ~3 to 1 immediate with ~8 to 1 total implied odds which is cutting it close for the percieved clean outs.  Against his range, though, I think I'm getting the correct mathematical odds, factoring in that I'm ahead some percentage of the time.
River is a big, beautiful 5, making the final run out: A 3 6 7 5.  He snap shoves ~$340.  I think for a brief couple of seconds, but I can't see any way I'm behind given the run out.  Obviously, 89 and 84 are the only hands that beat me which make no sense given the way the hand played.  It's just that the shove makes no sense and my issue with the whole hand.  Over the years, I've definitely learned to take my time when making calls for stacks, and which is why I take a couple of seconds here, worried that I'm missing some glaring error.  River shoves when the nuts are present on the board -- especially 4 card effective nut hands, hidden as they may be - is a rarity at 1/3.  I make the call and he [proudly] flips over A9o.  I show my filled gutter for the scoop and continue to stew over the hand which is why I'm reproducing it here.

Now clearly, he either had one helluva read on me on the flop / turn, or he way way way overplayed his hand (the latter more than the former).  What I'm questioning is: Where did the hand go wrong?  Did I misplay it?  It's obviously easy to win when you river the effective nuts, but do I check through the flop?  Fold the turn?  Did I discredit his premium Ace / nutted hands too much?  Granted, A9o is hardly a "premium" hand -- certainly not a 3 street ~$500 hand -- but I guess what I'm also conflicted by is the whole thought that my A4 hand is a bluff catcher on the river that would not have caught his "bluff."

I therefore argue that his river shove turns his hand into a bluff not a value bet, but if I call the turn, shouldn't I call any blank river?  Or should I be calling turn and folding a river shove?  There aren't too many bricks, save for an A, 3, or 6 but let's count bricks also as 10's and 9's -- hands that don't help his perceived range and don't help me.  For mental reference, I'm purposely staying away from calling a Q or a K a "brick," because it completes many sets given his range, and also gives him 2 pair given his would-be revised [turn betting] range.  Also, consider that he's shoving any river - with both bluffs and values.  If I second-guess my flop bet, his sizing by the river is not a shove, and more readily called (i.e. checks through flop, turn bets $50-70 and now there's $190-$210 with ~$380 behind by the river; an awkward overbet).  Am I overthinking / over-analyzing this hand?

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

This video angers me to no end...

It's been awhile since my last post.  Nothing much to report; life goes on and poker continues.  Anyway, I came across this video from Jalopnik the other day.

Every time I see it, I just want to scream at the driver of the white car...

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