What would you do? #156 - Holding pp KK to a flop committing bet

In reference to my comments about What would you do? #146 - Holding TPTK vs. a nit, I think this hand will cause some discussion as well...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $17.00
BB: $36.80
UTG: $35.50
UTG+1: $68.40
MP1: $25.45
Hero (MP2): $161.10
CO: $50.75
BTN: $63.35 - 16/10 / 25% steal / 3.1% 3bet / 100% fold to 3bet / 2.2 AF / 80% lead flop / 530 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Kc Ks
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BTN raises to $5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $13.25, BTN calls $8.25
What hands does a 3.1% 3betting BTN flat and not shove PF?  3 hands: AA, KK (less likely), QQ (most likely) or JJ (most likely) or AK.

Flop: ($27.25) 3s 4h Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
If I bet here, it has to be a big bet, and I'm essentially committing myself, like he is.  If I raise, it's all in.  Believe me, I kicked myself for not outright shoving all in PF...  I don't know that I want to do that, though.  I just have trouble believing any other hand (other than QQ) is betting like this where they're committing on the flop.

The only other hand worthy of consideration is AK of spades - where he's drawing to 9 + 3 outs; essentially a race.  I'm putting him more likely on QQ though than on AKs.

Let the controversy & flames begin!  First one will be from anonymous, no doubt: "can you be more afraid of the monsters under the bed? you've got the nut pair with the nut kicker. don't play like a pussy."  Before you write that, though, give me a reasonable range that you think he has that I beat here.

Final Pot: $27.25
BTN wins $25.90
(Rake: $1.35)

What would you do? #151 - Facing flop shove holding overpair KK in 3 way pot

Again, I had one of those nights where I was on a roller coaster. I was getting my opponents into spots where I was very much +EV, but I could not seem to get the cards to cooperate. At one point, I think I was down 3 buy ins, but I somehow managed to overcome and win THREE (3) WHOPPING BBs!!!! Yes, that's $1.50!!! BOOYAH! To be honest, though, given how I ran, I feel like I had a major win last night.

There was one Argentinian dude who kept pushing everything he had - draws, hands, etc. and hitting it even when behind. The cards would not reciprocate with me as far as luck; he was mostly responsible for the early deficit. The second hand I played against him, I got it all in AA vs. his AK (and I held). I should have treasured that, because I would go on to get a set all in on the flop vs. his flush draw and he turned it. I would hit an OESFD vs. his flopped set - all in again, and turn the flush but the river would pair the board. Those were the 3 notable hands that I remember, but there was other nonsense like him hitting two pair against my overpair, and other BS. It just sucked and was frustrating.

Anyway, this HH goes right to the top of the heap.  This hand took place last night...  related to all the HHs that I've been throwing on here showing a similar pattern of flatting a 3bet and getting wild action for stacks on the flop / turn / river.

Go ahead & let the flames begin!

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $46.45
UTG: $20.95
UTG+1: $50.75
Hero (UTG+2): $115.05 - I'm showing an 18/15 / 4.8% 3bet / 45% steal / 1.6 AF / 138 hands at the table
MP1: $34.25
MP2: $64.05
CO: $50.00
BTN: $53.20 - 16/9 / 0% steal / 3.7% 3bet / 10 AF / 150 hands
SB: $51.60 - 18/3 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / 3.0 AF / 44 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Kd Ks
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB raises to $7.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.75, BTN calls $5.75
So in 44 hands, the SB has yet to 3bet, which is not a big deal.  The only problem is that he's shown to be a fairly competent player who is choosing an odd spot, SB, to 3bet and/or squeeze.  I decide to take a flop rather than 4bet.  Unfortunately, that gets BTN to flat twice.

I feel like I've seen this before...

Flop: ($23.00) 9s Qh 8d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $23, SB raises to $44.10 all in, Hero ???
What else can BTN or SB have?  I have to believe that SB has AA at this point - or KK - and BTN has QQ.  Perhaps I have it backwards, but someone hit this flop hard and someone is going to get crushed.  We can rule out the random JT here right?

What would you do?  Be honest and leave a comment PRIOR to clicking the reveal.  I feel like this is a hand that goes to show down, so I don't want an "Of course!  Fold all day every day!" or "Of course!  How can you fold to an obvious bluff?!?!?"  What are the ranges / and am I dominated here or am I making a stupid decision and should be calling off the rest of my stack?


Click to see results

Hero folds, BTN calls $21.10

Turn: ($111.20) Kh (2 players - 1 is all in) - rat bastard!  3rd best hand would be first best!

River: ($111.20) 3s (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $111.20
BTN shows Qd Qc (three of a kind, Queens) - I feel like at this point, it's somewhat of an obvious tell for a player to flat with QQ like that.  He's in no-man's land... akin to JJ, but worse because there's only 2 hands that beat you instead of 3.  I feel like QQ and JJ play hands very similarly, and you can see that pattern evidenced in the past few HHs.
SB shows Ah Ad (a pair of Aces)
BTN wins $108.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #149 - Facing a river "shove" holding an overpair KK

Am I being pushed off the best hand here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $30.90
UTG: $61.95 - 18 / 15 / 42% steal / 6.9% 3bet / 26% fold to 3bet / 1.3 AF - 801 hands
UTG+1: $19.50
UTG+2: $19.00
MP1: $50.00
Hero (MP2): $153.40
CO: $18.00
BTN: $43.35
SB: $11.95

CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is MP2 with Kc Kh
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero raises to $7.25, 4 folds, UTG calls $5.25

Flop: ($15.75) 5c 6d Qs (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9
I should have probably checked this flop.  What hands are calling PF to a strong 3bet?  I think JJ+ are certainly calling.

Turn: ($33.75) 2h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
I am trying to pot control at this point.

River: ($33.75) 9s (2 players)
UTG bets $45.70 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
Am I wrong to fold this?  I think he puts me on exactly what I have: KK+, and his range is JJ-QQ.  I'm pretty sure he flopped a set.

Final Pot: $33.75
UTG wins $32.10
(Rake: $1.65)

What would you do? #144 - Facing river pot bet with PP AA

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $50.00 - 9 / 7 / 28% steal / 1.8% 3bet / 1.0 aggression factor / 133 hands
CO: $20.25
BTN: $54.55
SB: $34.75
BB: $35.20 - 44 / 6 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.6 aggression factor / 48 hands
UTG: $105.40
UTG+1: $51.20
UTG+2: $53.70
Hero (MP1): $74.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with As Ah
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, MP2 calls $1.75, 3 folds, BB calls $1.25
The BB coming along can only mean one thing: AK or PPs.

Flop: ($5.50) 8d 2h 4s (3 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $2.75, MP2 calls $2.75, BB folds
Yuck MP2 flatting in position.  He's either got 99+ or a flopped set.

Turn: ($11.00) 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50
Modest-sized turn lead.  I'll peel one more & see if he slows down.

River: ($26.00) Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I've got to be beat here, right?  He's not shown to be an aggressive player.  Easy fold?

I feel like I've seen this dance a million times before: build a pot, build a pot, build a pot.  A 9/7 is overcalling with two ranges: low pocket pairs and AK.  Is AK or a low pocket pair ever value betting with a pot sized bet on the river?  Is a low pocket pair flatting the flop?  There are no obvious draws for a 9/7.  This is a flopped set, where I think I paid $7.50 extra to find out.

Final Pot: $26.00
MP2 wins $24.70
(Rake: $1.30)