I had a pretty bad session last night... You know, the type of session where you're up around 2 buy ins and everything is on cruise control until you run into a tree: set over set twice, bad cards on the turn or river, etc. etc. You know what I'm talking about; you have significant equity and then you're forced to bail on the turn or riv. Aggrodonks raising their flush draws and betting you on each street only to hit their flush on the river...
Anyway, back to the title: OCD (Obsessive Compulsive Disorder). I know I'm very meticulous; ask my wife - she'll tell you. Well, I got involved in a hand with an unknown and a spewbox; you know the type: 60/2, calls flops, only to fold, etc. Anyway, the hand went as follows: I'm dealt QQ in position and 3 bet the EP donk limper to $5... standard... The unknown 3bets me (he has position on me) to $10 or $11 (he has a stack size of $25 total). Donk flats and I decide to flat (the donk has $50 or so). So the flop comes 9 high rainbow... Donk checks, I check and 3bettor bets his remaining $14 all in. Donk flats and I decide to raise the donk all in, as he clearly likes his hand. However, I only put out a raise to $35, not realizing that he has $21.15 remaining in his stack... so he sits on $0.15 remaining into the turn, which is, of course an Ace. He bets the "all in" remaining $0.15 and I insta call (ldo)... and you know what he flips over? AKs vs shorty's AA vs. my QQ. So, why am I pissed? Not because of any of the actions of any of the players... donkey sucks and I want him doing that every time... but because now my all-in EV is F*ed... Now it shows that I got all in on the turn, with essentially no equity, when the turn was a $0.15 all in. Really, the donkey 4 outted me, but I only get a 4% equity instead of the 84% equity vs. him.
I am so pissed, I'm considering changing the hand history to show an all in on the flop... OCD much?
With the set over sets (2 - one was AA (flopped A) vs. KK - AI on the turned King) and one would-be set over set (which I fortunately folded my 66 in a 3bet pot, OOP), I can say I am happy that I "only" lost $185 for the marathon session. It's sad that the only hand I truly remember in detail is the above because it just irritated me so... I have 84% equity vs. the donk and my HEM DB doesn't give me credit! F THIS!
P.S. I feel like such a nerd for writing this.
2024: Another Year of Concerts
3 days ago
This is why you have to know about the truth and less about the stats.
ReplyDeleteHere is a good quote.
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein
It is more vital for you to understand you got your money in good. That is the only way a poker player can keep his sanity.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteJust wondering if you're interested in doing a link swap with us at Life Fish?
http://www.lifefish.net
Let me know! Cheers,
EurekaKid
@Eureka Kid - I have added you to my blog list. The way it works is the most recent posts flow get the top of the list working backwards from the 25 most recent. LifeFish is on there & added.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the linkage on your end :-).
hey, i feel your pain, last monday, i was down -900 at one point in a matter of like 2000 hands....so sick
ReplyDeleteThanks! Added you at our end :)
ReplyDeleteI have been having exactly the same problem at the micros - PT3 is showing me as playing like an idiot with an awful all-in EV. The truth of the matter is very similar to yours, getting 75%+ of stacks in when massive favourite only for the 2 or 3 outer to hit the turn or river before the rest of the stacks go in.
ReplyDeleteStill, at least we know the truth!
Me thinks you are letting this get to you too much. Of course, I work in a people occupation, not a numbers occupation.
ReplyDelete@Light- I know. It shouldn't bother me at all, but my EV for this month is FAR beyond what is reasonably expected for a month (or maybe I've become so used to running below EV that it has become an impossibility in my mind to run above EV). Any chance I get to reduce my EV, I sadly view as a good thing. I'm not in the business of luck, I'm in the business of crushing dreams :=).
ReplyDeleteI look at EV similar to karma; the more negative EV I gather, the better my future will be, while the more positive EV I build, the more bleak the future looks. I don't want to artificially build positive EV.