What would you do? #239 - Easy fold?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $24.65
UTG: $38.05 - 38 / 8 @ 135 hands
UTG+1: $24.65 - 10 hands, 0/0 with no trickery
MP1: $33.86
MP2: $30.95
Hero (CO): $55.25
BTN: $45.90
SB: $33.92 - 36/22 @ 142 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Td Th
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.25, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2, SB calls $2, UTG calls $2
Pretty certain SB will call if I call, and SB will pay off at a minimum if I hit.

Flop: ($14.25) 9d 3c 2c (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $21.15 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Even though he's a new player to me, I feel as though I'm CRUSHED a HUGE portion of the time in this limp / raise spot (mostly AA, rarely KK).  I think a smaller percentage of the time, he's showing up with AK, but I don't see a totally new player to the table terribly overplaying AK like this.  As expected, he shows up with AA.
Hero folds, SB raises to $30.42 all in, UTG folds

Turn: ($56.55) 2s (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($56.55) 8c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $56.55
UTG+1 shows Ac As
SB shows Qs 9s
UTG+1 wins $53.75
(Rake: $2.80)

Earthquake in DC area

First to report it!  I just experienced my first significant earthquake, here in Dulles, VA.

Thinking about poker again...

I think it's easy and normal to fall into the trap of automatic poker.  You get used to a certain process or style of play in your head, and you stick to that plan.  If you're not actively seeking new and alternate approaches to hands, it becomes very easy to fall into the trap of reaching a plateau for your skills, or even worse, watching your skills decline.  I have been in this situation for the past 3 months; I am unwilling to deposit fresh funds into a new online account, and am patiently waiting [hoping?] that I get my money back from Full Tilt.

My poker play has been in a state of limbo, even though I still 4 table at Bodog 25 or 50NL.  I have adjusted to the monkeys at the Bodog tables; they are generally at either end of the extremes - i.e. the regs are generally 12/8, and the tourists are a healthy 45/2 or 25/2, with a sprinkling of 90/2 's or 90/60 's.  There are very few who are in between, like myself; on Bodog, I run around a 30/20 (very LAGgy for Full Tilt, but given that most players don't have a HUD at Bodog, I likely fit into the mid-tight very aggro camp).  Regardless, I play 25 or 50NL because of bankroll constraints; I want to keep no more than $400 on Bodog at any given time, with the assumption that if the Feds rush in and seize my funds, I have a stop loss of no more than $400.

To come full circle with the first paragraph, I realize that I have settled into a routine.  My CardRunners subscription expired with my Full Tilt account "closure," and I haven't been reading strategy articles other than what is in my subscription to Card Player magazine (which is close to running out as well).  Needless to say, I have not been expanding on my game, and it is only a matter of time until the Bodog fish die out and the regs get smarter.  Therefore, I have started watching old, archived videos that I have found here and there.

Yesterday, I watched the first 2 segments of Phil Galfond's Poker Philosophy, from Bluefire Poker.  I was immediately able to implement the key points that he expressed - scare cards and checking the river when you put your opponent on a bluff.

The scare cards point explains that a aggro LAG will continue to barrel and try to push you off of your hand.  He will see over cards to the board as scare cards, and continue to pot bet until you end up folding.  I could instantly relate; my strategy is based upon the opponent that he was talking about - I barrel those supposed "scare cards," and usually force my opponent into folding the best hand - a strategy that works out very well for me (I wind up winning a TON of money without show down, but my W$SD is typically at or below $0).

I don't know why I hadn't considered the opposite effect, though.  I have an incredibly tough time playing against those 40/30 honey badgers who "just don't give a shit," and keep barrelling pot sized bets at the board regardless their holdings.  In effect, they are my mirror image.  In response, I need to stop check raising my strong hands to scary boards and watch them wriggle free (fold), but rather allow them to continue to hang themselves.  I need to start check / raising my semi-bluffs with modest frequency.  I also need to check / call my mid-strength hands more often, instead of weakly folding to the stack-threatening second barrel.

The other point, checking the river to induce, is a GREAT strategy, that is easy to implement.  Phil points out that this is a leak that is very difficult to detect; since no money is "lost," the play can easily be overlooked.  Instead of bet bet bet with showdown-worthy hands against a drawing opponent, implementing a bet bet check strategy works more effectively.  Numerous times last night, I took the line of bet bet check, and had my drawing opponents bet river money that I would never have gotten had I led the river myself.  Profitville, booyah!  Having those clear reads on opponents, I was able to take my JTs on a T 9 3 6 2 board and turn it into river profit when I lead the flop, bet the turn and check / call the river.  Nothing new as far as the reverse; I have long since implemented the strategy of forcing a fold with a river bet when I too hold air or a draw and know I have no showdown value; a simple bet of 8BB into a 24BB pot will get a ton of folds against my drawing opponent with my KQ / QJ / etc. on the above board.  Now, I'm making money on the reverse strategy - checking my showdown-worthy hands to my mirror image who was on a draw in the first place.

Anyway, it feels good to write about poker strategy again.  Unfortunately, there haven't been too many instances of hands which I've felt worthy of posting.  I'm not playing all that often, so the interesting hand histories have been few & far between; most decisions come down to polarizing ranges - total LAGtards repping sets, etc., which are overwhelmingly easy decisions (it's funny to watch the reactions / comments when I'm showing down a pair of 3's against dude's randoms and the other players are wow'ed).  I'm hoping I'll have the time to watch more of Phil's Poker Philosophy and write another entry soon.

Trip Report: Hustler Casino

As I mentioned in my last post, I finally broke through with a decent win at the Commerce Casino.  I followed up my win at Commerce with a nice session at Hustler.  The Hustler Casino is quite a bit closer to my hotel, so I decided to head out for dinner prior to my session.  Since I was in the mood for sushi, the front desk recommended a small hole-in-the-wall restaurant, Sakura Japanese Restaurant and Sushi Bar in Los Angeles.  I highly recommend it; prices were incredibly cheap and the food was very good - particularly for the price.

Entrance to the Hustler Casino

Stomach filled, I headed out to Larry Flynt's casino.  The casino is somewhat small, with an understated entrance.  I was figuring there would be tons of neon, bright lights and half-dressed women roaming the property, akin to what I'd imagine the Playboy mansion is like.  At any rate, I was not there to check out women nor party it up; I was there to make some money.

The poker floor at Hustler Casino

Consistent with the exterior, the interior was pleasant and clean, but smaller than the cavern I had seen at the Commerce on the prior night.  The buy in structures for Hustler are different, as well.  They offered a 1 / 3 game (I think; perhaps it was 1 / 2) with a lower buy in, but 2 2 / 5 games - one with a $100 - $300 buy in and one with a $300 - $500 buy in.  I opted for the 2 / 5 $300 buy in game, starting with $200.

Having had one prior experience with a 2 / 5 game, the players at this game seemed unlike prior players I have encountered.  The action was typically loose passive - players limp / calling large raises to check / fold cbets.  I got nice value from JTs to a pocket second pair on a Jack high board, and stacked a player with a turn check / raise where I flopped a set to another player's AA (which totally tilted him, FTW!), but other than that, I had very few decisions.  The one "threat" at the table wound up quitting, leaving me as the table aggro.

A few observations: In this game, I would constantly raise my button to the limpers - a price of $40 would force the limpers to fold, as they were not keen on playing a large pot out of position.  In this game, players were able to fold their hands a lot easier than the 2 / 3 or 1 / 2 games I have played.  Finally, I walked away with a decent profit of $475 for the 3-4 hours of play - not a bad profit for a Wednesday night.

The coolest thing about the night, though, was a fellow player who was involved with movie production - a contractor who started a company applying EVMS to movie schedules / costs.  This is in my bailiwick as an engineer, so my interest was definitely piqued.  We exchanged emails and he'll hopefully contact with future opportunity.

Trip Report: Commerce Casino in Los Angeles

The Hustler Casino and Crowne Plaza Hotel

 Continuing on my second night of my trip, I decided to make the 20 minute drive to the largest poker room in the world, the Commerce Casino.  Let me say that it is HUGE!  According to their website, there are more than 200 tables.  I was surprised to see that for a Tuesday night, it was jammed; I estimated a good 70% of the tables were in action.

Entrance to the casino; seems legit, no?

The configuration of the casino was a section of table games sandwiched between 2 huge poker floors catering to cash games.  Apparently, there is an additional poker floor on another level, open for the tournaments regularly hosted.  This place was clearly huge, but given the setup, it did not have an overwhelming feel like I'd imagine the basement of the Rio feels like during the WSOP.

Inside the NL poker room

Upon finding a table (a quick process; the floor manager found me a seat almost instantly), I immediately noticed that the chairs are TERRIBLE.  In addition to the padding being worn down, the chairs were of the 4-legged variety, i.e. no swivel, no wheels, no height adjustment.  To compensate for the harsh padding, there are wedge pads readily available at random empty seats which you can grab to "soften" the crunch to your rear end.  In my case, though, for the 3-4 hours I would be playing, I thought the seats were bearable.  However, given a longer session, frequent breaks are absolutely necessary because you could likely develop bed sores (I joke), but you really would need to get up and stretch your legs.

The limit / high limit poker floor

Commerce has a buy in and blind structure similar to Hollywood Park.  Its rules are consistent with Hollywood as well (missed weird button / SB rules, betting line, etc.).  This time, I immediately sat down to a 2 / 3 blind structure with a $100 buy in, not wasting time at the 1 / 2 $40 tables.  It was a good choice; the first table was filled with mostly passive limpers, coupled with 2 aggressive types.  I sat in the 1 seat, and took note that the 9 seat (it seems that all poker tables in CA are 9-person tables) was playing every single hand, calling far too lightly, and playing hands to the river.  I would sit and wait for a playable hand prior to getting involved with Mr. Station.

It wasn't too long  until I picked up 99 on the button.  Mr. Station, in the CO opted to limp, as has been his habit.  I also had one other limper, an aggro who was a limp weak- / raise strong- hands type person.  I immediately popped the $3 blind to $16 ($115 effective stacks) and lost the aggro.  Mr. Station called and we saw a HU flop of J 7 3 rainbow, about as dry as it gets.  Mr. Station checked to me and I led for ~$25 into ~$40, to which he called.  The turn was an x (can't remember, but it wasn't an overcard to the board and it 2 flushed the board), and he checked again.  I continued to bet ~$40 and he called once again.  The river paired the board (3, it must have been), and he decided to shove all in for his remaining ~$40...  No decision snap call for me, and I scooped a decent pot for a second pair holding.  He showed K7o FTW!  From that point, I was off and did not slow down.

I would go on to build a $186 profit at the table and decided to move when Mr. Station quit and the table got far tighter / aggro.  I switched briefly to a table where I lost ~$10 of my new $100 stack (remember you can't sit down with more than a buy in at a new table in which the player requests a table change) in an orbit before reading the table for similar aggro.  I saw the table behind me was chatty, noisy and cheering for hands to hold, etc.  I knew that this kind of table is the table I'm after; players who care what happens after the money goes all in.  I spotted an empty seat and immediately switched.

At my new "home card game" table, I immediately took an aggressive line, 3-betting  and raising all in with my $100 stack.  I 3bet with AQ against an EP raiser who I read for weak.  He called / folded to my cbet shove.  I raised QQ and collected a family pot of limped blinds.  I was all in on the flop with J9s against a flop of T 8 x ss - and doubled up my initial ~$100 with the flush on the turn (against T4o - overvalue hands much?).  Finally, I was confronted with the only real decision of the night:

Given my reputation as the table bully / table captain / table aggromaniac (and I'm not usually in that spot in live poker), I raised to $25 with AQs in the CO against a table full of limpers.  By this time, I had an effective stack of ~$250 and started to tighten up, as I'm not entirely loving the thought of shoving a ~100BB stack pre-flop without a truly decent starting hand.  The SB flatted and the BB shoved all-in - a stack of nearly $300 (he has me covered).  The UTG instantly calls with his shortish ~$60 and I'm faced with a decision for my stack.  As you may have gathered, I'm not loving the thought of, at best, flipping for my stack, so after a fair amount of time, I folded.  In addition, I was not loving the tightish flat from the SB, his first such move in my series of raises.  Anyway, it turns out that the SB snaps and I would have been up against 77 (SB), JJ (BB) and T9s (UTG).  K QQ flop and blanks on the turn and river - the BB scoops a $580 pot and he's feeling pretty smug.  I am silently cursing myself for not having the balls to call of the raise - particularly once I get more hands on the SB who turns out to be an ABC player.

Anyway, I would end the night $425 to the positive.  The Commerce Casino trip marks my first decent live session win in about 2 months.

Up next on the trip report is Larry Flynt's Hustler Casino.  Stay tuned :-).

Trip report: Hollywood Park at Los Angeles, CA

View from the Hollywood Park parking lot

Whenever I travel, be it for pleasure or business, I make a concerted attempt to experience the local casinos of the area.  This week, I find myself in Los Angeles, California, home of the Lakers, smog and movie stars, among other things.  L.A. also happens to be poker-friendly area, with more than 5 large card rooms in the immediate vicinity.  In planning for this trip, I decided that I would try to visit at least 3 casinos in the 4 nights I would spend out west.

I flew into LAX on Monday, and after an easy flight and quick turnaround on car rental / hotel check-in, I found myself with a free afternoon.  Being that I have had a craving for In-n-Out since my last visit out west 2 years ago, I proceeded to the nearest fast food burger joint for a late lunch.  (If you haven’t had a chance to try In-n-Out, I highly recommend it; fresh ingredients at McDonald’s prices, with FAR FAR FAR better taste and no indigestion.)  Stomach laden with a fresh cheeseburger, French fries, and a diet Coke, I was ready to scratch my live poker itch.  After a quick google map search of casinos nearest to the area, I settled on the closest, Hollywood Park.  I jumped in my rental and headed out.  (BTW, props to Ford for their Ford Focus.  I really like this car.)

I figured that I would be going to a “local” casino, akin to a tribe casino.  As such, Hollywood Park was exactly what I expected.  Entrance to the casino was typical: table games to the left, poker tables to the right, horse track straight ahead.  Once inside, though, I found the casino rules to be totally different than what I had been accustomed to.   There are a few major differences to LA area (and not sure whether it applies to the whole of California) casinos, as well as minor tweaks to the “normal” poker room rules.  I will detail them below in two sections, -EV games and poker.

All of the below description is merely my interpretation and not in any way verified as factual.  It is what I interpreted / understood from my short time in the casino.

• -EV games

The rules in LA (or California, not sure whether it’s state or local) are that “gambling” is illegal, but games of skill are okay.  Therefore, the house is a conduit for skill games; it charges a “commission” for playing the role as dealer.  Basically, the house / dealer is paid $3 for every hand of blackjack, 3 card poker, etc.  A separate entity, “the bank,” an independent contractor to the casino, provides a bankroll from which to pay the players and collect the players’ losses.  This “bank” entity is a physically separate person, apart from the dealer, who has opted to essentially play the role of the house.

All players have a chance to act as the bank, paying $3 per hand dealt in exchange for the privilege.  Surprisingly, I observed 100% of players playing the role as player, never as bank.  I’d imagine playing the role of bank is akin to playing the craps line; looked upon as unfavorable.  However, I couldn’t help but think that playing as the bank clearly makes the most sense; the more bets / money in action, the lower the $3 commission effectively becomes.  It surely was an interesting twist on table games.

One additional note is that blackjack in Hollywood Park pays 6:5 instead of the normal 3:2.  Again, in my mind, this clearly favors playing to role of bank.

• +EV games (ala poker)

Hollywood Park poker room; pretty typical (sorry for the blurriness)

My bread & butter…  Poker in LA is simply… well… different.  The first thing I noticed when I sat down at my typical 1 / 2 NL game was the buy in was $40; no more, no less.  20BB?  Really?  Oh yeah; bonus if you fall below $20, you can rebuy to $60.  I don’t get why the 1 / 2 tables have a $40 buy-in cap; perhaps one of the readers can enlighten me with the logic behind it.

With the third hand, I found myself nearly all in pre-flop as I raised to $18 with AQs in the CO after everyone (10 person tables at Hollywood Park) limped to me.  Literally.  Everyone limped.  I would be happy here taking the blinds and moving onto the next hand.  However, a woman who fancied herself a real pro, decided to flat in the SB.  The table folded around and we saw a heads-up flop of 7 x x.  She auto-shipped her remaining $16-18 (guess she’s never heard of checking to the raiser) which I obviously snapped, and was shown the bad luck of her holding A7ss.   However, runner runner Queens to the rescue bailed me out and I now had a workable >50BB stack.  Moreover, she was PISSED, and started SPEWING chips.  She was appalled that I make a call for my stack with nothing but two overcards.  Granted, it did suck for her, but gimme a break; 10BB out of 20BB effective stacks with Ax sooted?  Get over it.  You may as well have shoved pre flop.

Approximately 20 minutes later, I raised from EP with AQs again ($10) and was 3bet  to $20 by the tilted reg middle aged white guy who kept complaining to whomever was listening that I was running my mouth and jabbering way too much.  Seeing that he was just DYING to make a move on me, I decided to 4bet shove for his $40 effective stack.  He hemmed and hawed but made the call.  I was shown A3ss.  Nice hand, sir.  Queen in the window, and I’m almost to a full buy in (100BB).

After spending 45-60 minutes getting my bearings and the lay of the land, I grew bored of 1 / 2 NL $40 which played like limit poker (players would typically raise the blinds to $4) and decided to move up to the 2 / 3 $100 buy in game.  Big time, I know…  Since I moved tables, I could not bring my +$100 stack to the table; I had to pull cash off the table to get to the $100 no more no less buy in rule.  I would wind up walking away up $50 for the night without any major hands or significant decisions.  Overall, though, the 1 / 2 game was EXTREMELY soft, and the 2 / 3 game had soft spots but was more difficult.

A few observations for Hollywood Park: every pot pulls $1 for the bad beat jackpot, regardless of flop or not.  The rake is $5 flat (+$1 for the jackpot), assuming the pot reaches a threshold $$ amount, which I could not determine.  The betting line never seems to be enforced; in fact, I queried a dealer about how a bet is constituted and was told that forward motion constitutes a bet.  Therefore, there is no need to push your bet past the betting line.  Angle shooter, anyone?  Finally, there is neither a dead button nor single blind.  If a player leaves when he / she was supposed to be the button, the would-be big blind posts a big blind (as the new SB), and the would-be UTG position posts a big blind (as the new BB).  The would-be SB posts the SB but receives the button.  What a weird rule.  If a player leaves when he / she was supposed to be the SB, I can’t exactly remember what happens, but it’s just as screwy.

Up next on the trip report: Commerce Casino.

Graduate school acceptance!

I got in!  Go me!

L.A. / El Segundo area poker rooms?

I have a business trip scheduled for July 11 - 15 to El Segundo / Los Angeles.  I'll be staying approx. 5 minutes from LAX.  Does anyone have any suggestions for poker rooms in the area?  Best I could find, there are two casinos immediately in the vicinity:

Larry Flynt's Hustler Club
Hollywood Park

If I drive a bit further away, I can go to the world's largest poker room, the Commerce Casino.  Nearby to Commerce, I can opt to go to the Bicycle Club.

In prior business trips, I think I've been to the Bicycle Club, but don't recall it being particularly memorable.  Obviously, the Bike & Commerce are world famous and have quite a bit of history - places where Johnny F'ing Chan and Barry Greenstein, among others, cut their teeth.  However, is the walk down memory lane / homage worth it?  I'd imagine that the time difference between the two closest casinos and the two better casinos is around 30 minutes in L.A. traffic.

Opinions?

P.S.  Of course, whatever the decision, you'll get a trip report.  Hopefully, I'll have the time to visit each of the rooms at least once, so I'll come back laden with pictures and recaps of the players.

Apropo topic of Freakonomics: Predicting the future

Interesting entry today; not saying it's directly related to any fellow bloggers, but an excerpt from Levitt's opinion:

"...the person who makes that prediction has a strong incentive to remind everyone that they made that crazy prediction which came true.
...if you’re wrong, there’s no person on the other side of the transaction who draws any real benefit from embarrassing you by bring up the bad prediction over and over."

Link if you're interested...

Bad beat jackpot

First time I've ever been involved in a "Bad Beat" hand.  Too bad for the loser that he didn't know he qualified for a jackpot:

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $20.40
UTG+2: $62.65
MP1: $22.40
Hero (MP2): $31.70
CO: $24.25
BTN: $21.79
SB: $39.27
BB: $57.85
UTG: $22.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with Kh Kd
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.85, 4 folds
This is a reasonably tight player (11/9 @ 654 hands).  He's overly aggressive and likely to overplay most hands.
 
Flop: ($2.05) Jc Kc 3d (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05
When the K flops, I'm a little scared that he won't bet the turn.  However, he just continues right through like the second K wasn't even there...

Turn: ($6.15) Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.53, Hero calls $2.53
Since I have history with him, I know he's likely to fold to a raise so I continue to call in position.

River: ($11.21) Ah (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.06, Hero raises to $26.27 all in, UTG+1 calls $6.91 all in
And he binks his 2 outter.

Final Pot: $41.15
UTG+1 shows As Ac
Hero shows Kh Kd
Hero wins $39.10
(Rake: $2.05)

What would you do? #239 - A coin flip?

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1352744
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $27.67
BTN: $12.43
SB: $42.30 - 42/11 / 0%3bet / 2.1AF / 86% cbet / 50% fold to cbet @ 86 hands
BB: $29.74
Hero (UTG): $68.91
UTG+1: $27.04
MP1: $38.58
MP2: $25.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Jc Ac
Hero raises to $0.75, 5 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Ok.  So villain is a fish.  He sees a lot of hands, and to date, has won money by betting big (bluffing) or people not believing him when he hits his improbable hands.  He is most aggressive on the river.  He has shown down all manner of hands including AK, etc.  He loves to flat his monsters when facing a PFR.

Flop: ($1.75) Ad Jh Kc (2 players)
SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $4.00, SB raises to $12.50, Hero folds
I think my mistake in this hand is raising his lead.  There are 5 hands that beat me here: AA (unlikely), AK (more likely), JJ (unlikely), KK (possibly, but not likely), and QT (very likely).  On the flip side, there are 2 hands that I am crushing: AQ, KJ.  He can also be bluffing, but I can't see him bluffing HUGE like this, on the flop.


It seems to me that it comes down to the above situation, and given that we're so deep, I fold the hand with minimal loss.

Weak, I know, but the action and pushback that I was getting on this hand seemed like Aces up was beat.


As an aside, I would go on to later take his entire $60-70 stack from his all-too-frequent river bluffs from my turn checks.

Still here...

I'm a little rusty on the poker front; I've been studying for the GMAT and putting a most of my time into the college application process (essays, etc.).  I finally took the GMAT this past Saturday (scored greater than the necessary minimum for entrance to JHU - FTW!) and was able to put a bit of time into online poker games.  I guess I shook the rust off fairly quickly, because I put a death grip on the Bodog 25NL ballers.  I pushed my bankroll up 8+ buy ins in 2 somewhat short sessions.

The upswing is a huge relief to me because in limited time (approx. 4400 hands over the past month), I've been on such a terrible downswing.  I hope that this recent upswing will translate to live poker, as I'd like to get in a few live sessions at a B&M poker room.  We'll see; I'd like to head over to Charles Town with Heffmike, if we can both agree on a date / time.  Anyway, brag for the day below:

Of course, after posting entry, I fully expect to run like poop again.  See the "Rules of Run Good."