Just an example of my FML poker playing...

So typical...  WTF?!?!?!?!?  Though I have to admit that I got my money in bad 4 times tonight - overpairs vs. flopped sets - only to suckout on the turn or river with a set of my own.  Go me :-).  A little luck never hurts, I guess :-).

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $60.45
CO: $54.95
Hero (BTN): $58.10
SB: $37.35
BB: $63.60
UTG: $19.50
UTG+1: $58.05
UTG+2: $66.50
MP1: $60.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Jh Ah
UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) Kd Qh Td (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) As (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, SB calls $14

River: ($45.50) Js (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $36.10 all in, SB calls $15.35 all in

Final Pot: $76.20
Hero shows Jh Ah (a straight, Ace high)
SB shows Ac Kc (a straight, Ace high)
SB wins $36.60
Hero wins $36.60
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #141 - Facing a river "shove" holding a rivered top pair

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $69.15
BTN: $50.00
SB: $50.00 - 24/4 / 13% steal / 2.0% 3bet / 2.0 aggression factor / 1K hands
BB: $64.05 - 54/3 / 0% steal / 7.4% 3bet / 1.3 aggression factor / 99 hands
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $55.65
UTG+2: $56.35
MP1: $62.90
MP2: $45.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Td Kh
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1
A little bit about SB: he's continually shown to be a weak, passive player.  He plays his made hands strong, and weak hands weak.  He's a weak tight reg.

Flop: ($4.50) 5s 8h 2h (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, SB calls $3.75, BB folds

Turn: ($12.00) Jc (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($12.00) Ks (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero raises to $14, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $44.75 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
Bad raise?  Regardless, I can feel very confident I'm not folding the best hand here, right?  There's no way a weak passive player is stacking off with a pair of Jacks or a weaker hand than KT.

Final Pot: $40.00
SB wins $38.00
(Rake: $2.00)

The Rise & Fall of Quincy Capers

The latest installment of the series is in!  If you're not already reading it, I highly suggest that you do so - ASAP!  This is a great read by someone who I had not heard of previously, Yakshi.

I highly recommend this blog.  GREAT writing, and a great read.

Becoming less gunshy...

I posted a few days ago that I was really becoming gunshy with PF hand holdings (read the comments section as well)...  After corresponding with Matt Tag,  omgitsjoshua (my personal poker guru), and HappyPixel via comments, I realized that I'm not nearly as aggro PF as I should be.  I am lagging behind the curve - I fold too easily to a 3bet or raise (or worse, flat OOP) - partially due to the fact that I have run so poorly lately.  This talk, combined with reading Bluff's articles this month which speak about the insanity of changing your play even though you are doing the right things (only being results-oriented because they don't work out) has me realizing that I'm actually changing my play based on results and not statistics.  As poker players, we should strive to be analytical, not results-based.

It's much easier to write this when you're running good rather than bad, so I am writing while coming off of 2 or 3 "run bad" sessions where I've been set-over-setted a number of times (both when AI and I'm far ahead and when I'm far behind, but never when I'm behind and doing the suck out), and sucked out on the river (all in on the turn) with numerous holdings that are far ahead of the villain.  I need to believe what I wrote above... we all do.

Here's what I'm typically doing:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $188.05
BB: $43.70
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $169.55
UTG+2: $56.85
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $49.00
CO: $93.85  - 14/12 / 44% steal / 4.8% 3bet / 50% fold to 3bet / 3.3 aggression factor
BTN: $17.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah Kh
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.50, 2 folds, CO raises to $18.50, Hero calls $11
I don't know if this is an exact example because we're so deep here; nearly 200BBs.  I really question, though, whether I want to shove AKs for what appears to be no better than a coin flip.

Flop: ($38.00) Ac 3c Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22.50, Hero calls $22.50

Turn: ($83.00) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($83.00) 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Final Pot: $83.00
Hero shows Ah Kh (a pair of Aces)
CO shows Th Kd (Ace King high)
I think other players are picking up on my "weak" PF style and trying to take advantage.  Is he really 4betting my repped 3bet strength?
Hero wins $80.00
(Rake: $3.00)

I leave you with this hand history as proof of chaning my ways asabove:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $50.00
BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $51.75
BB: $50.00 - 16/11 / 18% steal / 2.4% 3bet @ 281 hands
UTG: $51.50
UTG+1: $29.35
UTG+2: $20.10
MP1: $57.15
MP2: $80.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Qh Qc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, 4 folds, BTN calls $1, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $51.75 all in, 1 fold

Final Pot: $32.00
Hero wins $32.00

One other thing, so long as I'm not writing a WWYD post...  I took a shot at 100NL last night.  I played ~400 hands, and was largely confident in my play.  I did get decent PF cards, which held up, and hit a couple of sets which I got paid on - and wound up with an okay profit.  I ran a 20/13 with a 6.5% 3bet, which says I'm feeling fairly comfortable there.  Needless to say, this won't be the last time I'll be playing up.

What would you do? #140 - Overpair facing flop check / raise shove

This is another hand from my live session in Atlantic City a few weeks ago:

Background on the LAGDONK - I had seen him *NOT* be able to lay down a pocket pair (at least JJ+) against a very obvious AA PF...  The action went something like he raised to $20, guy holding AA raised to $90 (which was about 25% of effective stacks I believe) and he flats.  Flop comes all under, I think he leads and AA guy raises all in to which LAGDONK instacalls.  Clearly, he's a "play my hand, don't think about anyone else's" type of player.  Moreover, he far overplays the value of each hand he is dealt.  He must've gone through about $800 prior to the hand involving me and appears to be steaming.

I hold JJ in MP2, facing quite a few limpers, so I put in a raise to $16, which gets BB (LAGDONK) and one other to come along.

We see a flop of 4 6 8 rainbow.

The 2 players check to me and I lead out my overpair to the safe flop for $28.  The SB raises me to all-in, effectively $160 remaining.  What would you do?


Click to see results

I think this is a fairly big no-brainer.  Regardless whether I'm holding AA or anything, I'm not giving him credit for an overpair.  I think he's steaming, but I don't think he's stupid enough to check / raise all in on a pretty blank flop with 8x or the like.  I'm befuddled, though, because I can't fathom that he flopped a set and is instantly trying to get it all in.  In the end, I folded, resolving that he has no less than two pair... likely a set trying to get instantly even.  He's not a thinking player; perhaps he views me as playing in the same style as him where he called JJ to another's AA.

He actually showed his flopped set of 6's after I tanked for so long.  I didn't really need to see it though - I knew.

Edit:  Funny, this write up is timely, as Grump ran into a "similar" situation.

What would you do? #139 - Holding KK, having no idea where I am in the hand

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $52.30
BTN: $73.40
SB: $51.00 - 15 / 12 / 25% steal / 8% 3bet / 2.0 aggression factor @ 74 hands
BB: $39.90 - 29 / 8 / 14% steal / 0% 3bet / 2.5 aggression factor @ 66 hands
Hero (UTG): $51.70
UTG+1: $16.35
UTG+2: $67.90
MP1: $50.75
MP2: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Kc Ks
Hero calls $0.50, 6 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB checks
Changing it up a bit; I'm looking for CO, who has been raising wide (25/20) to raise for me so I can re-raise and press.  No dice.

Flop: ($1.50) 5c 6s 4s (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.50
I think I'm ahead on this draw-heavy flop, but I'm going to be cautious.

Turn: ($6.00) 3c (3 players)
SB bets $5, BB folds, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
Is there a point in risking a bunch of money when I am up against any two cards?  A 4 straight is out there, flush draws all over the place, and he could very well have 2 pair already.  What do you think?  Too nitty?

Final Pot: $6.00
SB wins $5.70
(Rake: $0.30)

What would you do? #138 - When to fold AK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $110.90
UTG+1: $44.30
Hero (UTG+2): $91.80
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $75.65
CO: $17.50
BTN: $49.75 - 19/13 / 32% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 2.8 aggression factor @ 257 hands
SB: $50.00
BB: $50.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Ah Kh
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, MP1 calls $1.75, MP2 calls $1.75, 1 fold, BTN raises to $9, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $7.25, 2 folds
Anyone folding here?  I think this is a viable option; 32% steal does not smack that he's steal-aware, but he's not shy about 3betting, and is somewhat aware of stealing and position.  Plus, to him, I have 24 / 20 stats.  He could be 3betting my range light.  Therefore I see a flop.

Flop: ($22.25) Th Qc 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
I have to believe that he's betting this flop if he has an overpair or connected with this flop.  There are many broadway hands the connect here in addition to the [less likely] made J9 :-) straight.

Turn: ($22.25) Kc (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, BTN calls $12.50
I want to get some value while I perceive to be ahead here.

River: ($47.25) Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
I have no idea where I am in this hand!  I give up.

Final Pot: $47.25
Hero shows Ah Kh (two pair, Kings and Tens)
BTN mucks 2d Jc
Hero wins $44.90
(Rake: $2.35)

Squeeze!

Epic fail:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $52.80
MP1: $50.75
MP2: $50.75
CO: $78.75 - 7 / 6 / 6% steal / 6.2% 3bet / 181 hands
Hero (BTN): $125.40
SB: $17.00
BB: $20.90
UTG: $58.30 - 43 / 24 / 40% steal / 16.7% 3bet / 51 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 6c 2c
UTG raises to $1.75, 3 folds, CO calls $1.75, Hero raises to $7.50, 2 folds, UTG raises to $20, 2 folds
This guy has been raising big and wide from all spots.  It feels like he's ripe for a squeeze.  When he comes over the top, either he's reading my squeeze as what it is and knows I can't call his 4bet, or he's got a monster.  With $7.50 committed, I'm going to shut down and pick a better spot where I know I'm ahead.

Final Pot: $17.50
UTG wins $17.50

What would you do? #137 - Facing a ton of action on the turn in a multi-way pot

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $57.90
SB: $58.80 - 15 / 11 / 27% steal / 5.6% 3bet / .9 aggression factor @ 568 hands
Hero (BB): $126.15
UTG: $53.95
UTG+1: $54.40
UTG+2: $96.05
MP1: $14.70 - 56 / 13 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / .5 aggression factor @ 61 hands
MP2: $50.00 - 24 / 19 / 51% steal / 6.2% 3bet / 2.2 aggression factor @ 370 hands
CO: $50.00 - 20 / 0 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / NA for everything else @ 10 hands

CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is BB with Ad 6d
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $3, CO calls $2.50, 1 fold, SB calls $2.75, Hero calls $2.50, MP1 calls $2.50
I call because it is very likely MP2 is raising to isolate the limper and / or steal the CO's dead money posted blind.  This is a great multi-way hand.

Flop: ($15.00) Ah 8s 2c (5 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks
I think about a lead here, but given my position, I opt to either check / raise or check / call depending on who is leading the action.  I get nothing though so we see a free turn.

Turn: ($15.00) 9h (5 players)
SB bets $11, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP1 raises to $11.70 all in, MP2 folds, CO folds, SB calls $0.70
Given that SB has a .9 AF, what could he be opening so big with that makes sense in this spot?  Clearly, he's scared of the hearts, but 2/3 pot on the turn?  This smacks of a set or Ace /broadway.  I'm beat.

River: ($38.40) 3c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $38.40
SB shows 9d 9s (three of a kind, Nines)
MP1 shows 3h Jh (a pair of Threes) - I think this is a very very marginal call for him.  Perhaps he's expecting another call or two behind him to get the correct odds?
SB wins $36.50
(Rake: $1.90)

Full Tilt Bullsh*t

WTF, Full Tilt?  I think it's great that you roll out software updates with frequency.  They're bettering the user experience, making the game more secure, and encouraging more players to join.  Kudos!  I think you're probably the most innovative online site out there.  However, what happened last night?

I [finally] get the kiddies to bed, fire up HEM, TableNinjaFT, and the Full Tilt client.  I wait for an update.  I finally get in, and sit down to 6 tables, using their new table search feature.  I get dealt into my first hand of the night - then poof!  Nothing works.  Kinda pissed; I probably lost my first hand of the night, losing 1BB.  I figure it's my computer, so I shut down the client and restart.  Nothing.  The little Full Tilt splash screen alternates between "connecting..." and "connected..."  Okay; maybe I need a restart of the entire computer.  Same thing.  Maybe my computer's networking has gone haywire.  Try my upstairs computer.  I don't even get an update; simply a cannot connect.  Fire off an email to tech support about how much this sucks.  Look for Full Tilt's online status, which says they're running normal and fine.  The short of it is it took nearly 2 hours for them to update their status to "Down for scheduled maintenance" which is BS!  They were down from 8:00PM until at least after I went to bed at around 12:00AM

Hey Full Tilt: How bout you credit me for the Iron Man day I missed?  How bout you give me an extra day to compete my mid year bonus?  Finally, how bout you credit me the BB I missed because your software / servers locked me out?


Is Full Tilt working now?  If I come home tonight and sit down to play, will I be able to be dealt into a hand?

What would you do? #136 - Facing river shove with middle pair

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $50.75
CO: $17.50
BTN: $49.00 - 28 / 17 / 67% steal / 0% 3bet / 3.5 aggression factor @ 30 hands
SB: $59.55
Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $110.60
UTG+1: $32.20
MP1: $37.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 9c 3c
5 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $3.50
Typical spot; this guy has been raising a ton of buttons and COs...

Flop: ($10.25) 4h Ac 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $7, BTN raises to $14, Hero calls $7
Club flush draw.

Turn: ($38.25) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
Nice to get a pair to go along with the draw.

River: ($38.25) Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $30 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
I think your hand is a bluff catcher.  Do you make the call?



Click to see results

Either this player is a very tricky player, or he's a total donkey bluffing in a spot where it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to bluff. I don't think there's any chance he flopped a boat. The reason I call, though, is because of the check on the turn. Referring to my first sentence, a good majority of the players out there are *NEVER* checking back the turn if they have a good- or even decent- Ace. They're betting for value, particularly after raising the flop. I've somewhat established my hand as a draw or weak Ace by my flop call. None his hands are worthy of shoving 60BBs on the river; it is unlikely he turned a set of 9's, and if he hit a Jack, he's looking to get to showdown. It just seems like such a fishy play, I make the call and find he turned his hand into a TOTAL bluff.

Hero calls $30

Final Pot: $98.25
BTN shows 2c 3s (a pair of Fours) -LOL; playing the board!!!
Hero shows 9c 3c (two pair, Nines and Fours)
Hero wins $95.25
(Rake: $3.00)

Things that I've been doing lately...

I'm constantly trying to improve my game.  I'm always looking for ways to eek out 1 or 2 extra BB/100 hands.  I'm also looking for ways to increase value with made hands.  Prior to the past month or so, though, my game has been bet bet bet.  I've always known this to be exploitable; I wind up winning a bunch of small pots with weaker or no hands, and risk losing larger pots where I've put money at risk to be called down each street (i.e. players are allowing me to value bet myself).  However, overall, I've [obviously] come out ahead with my aggression factor usually something like 3+.

I've taken a long look inward, though.  I've also begun watching a few videos and been thinking about their logic and thought processes.  I rarely, if ever, see a bet bet bet pattern - and I'm 100% sure that while the bet bet bet strategy may work in the 50NL world, players at 100NL and up are more than apt to overcome this style.  100NL players can see through bet bet bet lines and start to call more often for value, realizing that raising folds out my [often] bluffs.

So what have I been doing to change my bet bet bet strategy?  Balancing my aggression by checking more often.  For example, is there really a point, when holding 87s on an Ace high flop, to betting the flop?  Am I ever folding out an Ace?  Yes, I am folding out a lot of non-Ace holdings, but really?  With this method, (even though my opponent may be getting tricky with me which will be duly noted) I can take the pot away on the turn or river when confronted with back-to-back checks; a clear indication of disinterest in the pot.  Plus, my opponent has seen ideally seen me check back top pair on the flop, so he's comfortable folding his non-nut pair hands.  In the same vein, if I'm holding AceRag, am I folding a premium Ace in that same spot?  No.  By checking behind, though, even though I'm letting off a free card that could potentially hurt me, I'm controlling the pot size (not forcing myself into making marginal decisions with marginal holdings on later streets) and also giving my opponent a chance to bluff the pot himself.  If I have a pair of Aces on an Ace high flop, it seems that the best way to get value from that type of hand is checking and calling to induce bluffs.  Raising and betting folds out my opponent's bluff capabilities and makes him/her pretty uncomfortable with their second pair or lesser holdings.

I guess I'm growing as a poker player, because I'm beginning to trust the cards and/or probabilities.  Again, in the past, the bet bet bet strategy worked for me because all I wanted to do was end the hand.  [Although I still get sucked out on] I wanted to take down the pot before someone could suck out on me in a later street.  Now, though, I'll adjust my play appropriately by not betting the flop to induce action on the turn and/or river, which would have otherwise been missed because I muscled my opponent out of the hand on the flop.

All of this isn't to say that I'm not barreling all streets ever, with all holdings from flopped monsters to air, but that type of play is happening far less often, with a far greater balance toward my strength hands.  I have probably put in about 25-30K hands with the balanced aggression method, and it seems to be working (I'm at work so I don't have actual figures to share), but I know I'm winning sessions far more often.

I am still working on finding the time to continue my Back to Basics series... though I have yet to write the next segment.   It's hard to convince myself to find the time because it is EV- for me personally, by and large.  However, it's still on my plate of things to do, for those interested.  I'm working through my mid-year bonus with Full Tilt through their Iron Man program.  I am eligible for $500 in bonus money - of which I've completed $100.  10,000 FTPs in 45 days = 222 FTPs/day - far more than I've been averaging for the past 2 months, but I'm ahead of pace currently: 2087 points completed with 7913 points remaining over 38 days = 213 FTPs/day pace.  With the Rush Week bonus coming up next week, it's nice to coincide/overlap the two and pick up a double bonus.  Finally, the month has been up & down in the early going - never hitting negative, but up about 4 buy ins thus far from a peak of 10 :-(.