What would you do? #184 - Turned scare card to my KK

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/938270
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $109.95
Hero (SB): $147.80 - 20/16 / 69% steal / 5.3% 3bet / 1.0AF / 99 hands
BB: $123.15 - 30/7 / 0% steal / 3.7% 3bet / 1.5AF / 69 hands
UTG: $106.60
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $101.50
MP2: $106.00
CO: $102.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with Ks Kh
6 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
I put my stats up there as they're somewhat relevant... painting a picture of my steal %, etc.  The stats are how the BB sees me.

Flop: ($6.00) Jh 8d 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50
Standard cbet; what I would do whether I have a hand or am simply stealing.

Turn: ($15.00) Ah (2 players)
Hero bets $9, BB calls $9
I don't know whether I should continue here...  My hand is unimproved, and it's very easy for him to be floating most of his range, knowing that I usually cbet my steals.  I feel like the Ace is such a bad card.

River: ($33.00) Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $33, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
What do you think?

Final Pot: $33.00
BB wins $31.35
(Rake: $1.65)

What would you do? #183 - Folding TPTK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $130.35
UTG: $101.50
UTG+1: $188.70
Hero (UTG+2): $107.35
MP1: $233.20
MP2: $99.00
CO: $44.05
BTN: $99.50 - 18/14 / 44% steal / 5.5% 3bet / 2.2 AF / 180 hands
SB: $101.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with As Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12.00) 7d Kh Th (3 players)
Hero bets $8.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $28.50, Hero calls $20
Alright... WTF?

Turn: ($69.00) 4s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $67.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
Easy fold?  Either he has QJh or a flopped set of 7's.  Pretty certain he's 3betting TT.  KT is also in his calling range, especially in position.  He's not shy about 3betting, given his 5.5% propensity, but should I be stacking off here?

Final Pot: $69.00
BTN wins $66.00
(Rake: $3.00)

A well played hand

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $91.80
SB: $121.65
BB: $101.50
UTG: $99.00
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $100.00 - 12/9 / 27% steal / 5.1% 3bet / 2.3 AF / 405 hands

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 2c 2s
3 folds, MP2 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds
I could go either way on this call; it is solely a position-based call.

Flop: ($7.50) 8d Qh 2d (2 players)
MP2 requests TIME, MP2 checks, Hero bets $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50
Meh... bottom set :-)...  I'll fire out a "feeler."  :-).  I have to imagine that he's raising with AA, KK. 

Turn: ($16.50) Qd (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $9.50, MP2 calls $9.50
I'm not convinced he has a Queen, so I don't want to represent the Queen myself.  A little under 2/3 pot feels like a good sized bet, so what does that leave me with?  99-JJ with a heavier weighting towards the JJ.  It also could be a AA,KK who planned on raising a clean turn, but sees a "bad" card.  He is in turtle mode, trying to bluff catch.

River: ($35.50) 8h (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $20, MP2 requests TIME, MP2 calls $20
I want him to "catch" my bluff.  I was unsure about my bet sizing, but I think it was perfect.  I don't know that he's calling $25, and $15 lets him bluff catch too lightly...  Also, if he does turn up with the Queen, he's raising on the rivered boat.

Final Pot: $75.50
Hero shows 2c 2s (a full house, Twos full of Queens)
MP2 mucks Jd Js
Hero wins $72.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #182 - Turned trips facing committing raise

A little controversy for your Monday morning coffee:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/926994
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $90.00 - 18/9 / 100% steal / inf AF / 11 hands
UTG: $88.75
UTG+1: $130.95
UTG+2: $162.00
MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $208.15
CO: $101.50 - 17/12 / 35% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 3.3 AF / 100% cbet flop / 173 hands; fairly decent player, so my notes say...
BTN: $79.00
SB: $107.60 - 14/5 / 13% steal / 1.8% 3bet / 1.7 AF / 55% cbet flop / 1k hands; typifies a semi-bad reg

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 7c 6c
3 folds, MP1 requests TIME, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12.00) 9d 5d 7s (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, CO calls $6, SB folds
Gutter + pair.  Not so bad for an SC flop.

Turn: ($30.00) 7h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $43, BB folds,  Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero says "set?", Hero folds

Either this guy has slow-played an overpair or he flopped a set.  Clearly, he likes his hand.  He wants to get all in with what he feels is the best hand.  I don't have a stack-worthy hand.  The only hands he's repping have me beat: 5's full and 9's full.  I don't believe 7x's are in his range, but if I add that in, he has me beat as far as that range: A7, 87s, 76s.  Even as I post this, in retrospect, I still am losing sleep over this fold.

Edit: A day or two later and I'm still thinking about this hand.  I realize that it looks incredibly fishy to lead the turn here.  His raise is very polarized to sets...  I just don't see him bluff raising here without the goods.  Perhaps he has 68o?  Doubtful.  I don't think he's a bad reg, so I doubt he's overplaying a pocket pair...  I also want to point out that leading the turn was a poorly thought out plan.  I should not have led the turn; I should have let him continue to bet.  Thoughts?

Final Pot: $56.00
CO wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)

Hello Australia... or should I say "Cheers!"

I would like to give a quick shout out to those readers, who are more numerous than "ONE," coming to this blog from the land down under!  Apparently I have 34 readers coming to visit me... reading about my daily donkishness to see how badly I can botch a hand.  To those whose toilets flush counter-clockwise, I say "Cheers!"

Thanks for coming to visit, mates.  I truly do hope you are entertained by my lunacy poker genius.

Location map of my 30+ Aussie visitors, courtesy of Google Analytics

What would you do? #181 - Where did I go wrong with TPGK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $146.25
MP2: $101.50
CO: $100.00 - 16/10 / 30% steal / 2.3% 3bet / 4.0AF / 67% cbet flop
BTN: $110.00
SB: $213.25
BB: $100.00
UTG: $198.65
UTG+1: $235.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Qs Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) 7c 8s Kh (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, CO calls $5, SB folds
Keep it cheap to get lesser hands calling me.

Turn: ($20.00) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $25, Hero calls $15
Should I be folding to a 2.5x raise?

River: ($70.00) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $67 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I think this is definitely a fold here.  Is the error on the turn?  I'm assuming he flopped a set.

Final Pot: $70.00
CO wins $67.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Quads FTW

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $97.85
BB: $100.00
UTG: $235.00
UTG+1: $132.85
UTG+2: $101.50
Hero (MP1): $125.85
MP2: $57.65
CO: $100.00
BTN: $147.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with 2c 2d
UTG raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, MP2 calls $3, 1 fold, BTN raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG calls $15, Hero calls $15, 1 fold
Normally, this is a dump situation.  However, UTG is capable of a wide variety of spaz plays, and BTN has been 3bet squeezing an awful lot.  BTN clearly wants to ISO the LAG, and I'm fully aware that BTN could has (at minimum) 2 overcards.  In addition, my stats are semi-LAGgy... I think I was running around a 29/20 - trying to catch the UTG in a big hand where I have the goods.  Given that justification (also the fact that both players have me covered), I make the call.  If UTG folds, it's an insta-fold for me as well.

Flop: ($58.50) 2h 9d 6c (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $30, UTG folds, Hero raises to $107.85 all in, BTN calls $77.85
Nice nuts.  BTN is pretty sure of himself given his bet.  At this point, given his half pot lead, I'm certain I put him on a big overpair.  He's not the kind of player to lead a blank flop like this without seeking value.  When UTG folds (damnit), I raise the remaining $68 of my stack to get it in.

Turn: ($274.20) 2s (2 players - 1 is all in)
Insult to injury!

River: ($274.20) 6d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $274.20
Hero shows 2c 2d (four of a kind, Twos)
BTN shows Kc Kh (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
Hero wins $271.20
(Rake: $3.00)

Easy game :-)

What would you do? #180 - Another river bluff spot?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $65.00
Hero (BTN): $167.85
SB: $61.20
BB: $35.00
UTG: $104.35
UTG+1: $103.65 - 11/8 / 24% steal / 3.9% 3bet / 2.9AF / 68% cbet flop / 899 hands
UTG+2: $23.15 - Fish (obviously)
MP1: $215.70
MP2: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 7d 6d
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, UTG+2 calls $3.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $15, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $11.50, 1 fold
I have position and I want to see how this player acts out of position.  I've been testing a few of the regs lately.  Before I start getting flack for raising an 11/8, I should point out a few things: I am squeezing with the expectation of calling UTG+2's shove, I am planning on folding to an UTG+1's 4bet, and I am in position.  His flat (which is terrible, IMO) here says he has one of two hands: JJ,QQ (with a heavier weighting towards QQ).

Flop: ($35.00) Jd 9s 9d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $18, UTG+1 calls $18
I perform a "standard" cbet flop with my represented AA, KK, AK.  He flats.

Turn: ($71.00) 4c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
I try to pot control my supposed hand, representing AK.  If a King falls on the river, I'm pretty certain that I'll be betting, but I'm more inclined to believe that he'll lead the river if a King falls, which will force me to fold.  If a diamond falls, I can certainly bet that - as well as an Ace.

River: ($71.00) Ah (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $71, UTG+1 folds
I hit my "Ace" and make him a bet he can't accept...  Ahhh... the power of position.  If I make a lesser river bet, I don't know that he folds.  I also wonder if he folds to a turn bet.  Either way, the Ace definitely bailed me out.

Final Pot: $71.00
Hero wins $68.00
(Rake: $3.00)

The Poker Meister #71 - Gets there once again

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $69.00
BB: $213.10 - Total LAG.  Would continually call 3bets only to fold to cbets.  Terrible stats and very aggro.
UTG: $56.50
Hero (UTG+1): $101.50
MP1: $54.40
MP2: $46.55
CO: $167.40
BTN: $185.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with 9s Js
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 5 folds, BB requests TIME, BB calls $2
Of course I'm raising my favorite hand.  I've been getting J9 sooted so few & far between that when I get it, I gotta play it like Aces!

Flop: ($6.50) 8h Qs 5s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Smacked by the deck; FD + ISD...  If I'm not ahead on the overs, I'm certainly no worse than 50/50 against this LAG.  I want to build a pot.

Turn: ($14.50) 2s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, BB raises to $21, Hero calls $13.50
Bingo.  I love my call behind because it induces a bluff river bet.  If I re-raise here, I'm pretty certain he folds.

River: ($56.50) Jc (2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero raises to $73.50 all in, BB requests TIME, BB folds
Too bad I couldn't get him to commit his last $34, but I got a pretty decent payday...

Final Pot: $136.50
Hero wins $133.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #179 - Holding overpair; what am I beating here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $106.85
MP2: $100.00
CO: $269.00
BTN: $100.00 - 16/16 / 29% steal / 5.0% 3bet / 7.0AF / 100% cbet flop / 115 hands
SB: $100.00
Hero (BB): $119.95
UTG: $73.65
UTG+1: $100.00
UTG+2: $132.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Js Jc
5 folds, CO calls $1, BTN raises to $5.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.50, CO calls $4.50

Flop: ($17.00) 6d 2d 7s (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $12, Hero calls $12, CO calls $12
It's fine that he cbets here.  I don't know that there's a purpose in raising.

Turn: ($53.00) 2s (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $28, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds, CO folds
So is this a mistake to fold here?  It's very thin to call and expect a river shove...  He could easily show up with 88-TT as he could QQ-AA or even Axd, etc.  He doesn't have a huge propensity for stealing (29% is not a "regular" stealer...  What do you think?  Mistake?  Not a mistake?  I'm expecting to hear pretty divided comments...

Final Pot: $53.00
BTN wins $50.35
(Rake: $2.65)

Winner winner, chicken dinner

Well, it's done.  I'd like to thank my wife, children, the academy, my mom...  Count me among those who are a winning player at 100NL.  A combination of running good and playing even better has allowed me to overcome what I felt like was an insurmountable deficit of 12 buy ins at that level prior to the beginning of the month.  Tonight marks the completion of the final step in the journey to become a true poker degenerate :-).  Of note, not only did I overcome the remaining $-57 from yesterday's 100NL session, but I smashed today's session with a 4.5 buy in win.  I am marginal (1.75 PTBB/100) winning 100NL reg, which I expect will continue to increase over time.

All told, I think the biggest difference in my play from a month or so ago and now is that I have concentrated on my blue line, otherwise known as "Won money at Showdown, W$SD."  Prior to this month, I have never had a positive blue line - let alone a break-even blue line.  In fact, it has always been a linear downward slope - in direct contrast to my red line, otherwise known as "Won money without Showdown."  It's nice to look at my monthly graph and see both lines converge towards similar points - with my blue line, in fact, overcoming my red line!  To be honest, being the aggressive player I am, I never thought I'd see the day.  I can't credit all of it to spectacular play, though; I've been getting hit by the deck, my hands are holding when I'm all in, and I'm table selecting like a fiend.  I am making a point to work on note taking, so I am slowly marking all of the decent / good regulars, which leaves the non-noted and noted "green / fish" players as my targets for tables.  Finally, I've reduced my tables to 6-7 instead of the usual 9.  I'm having more time to make solid decisions and less pressure to act quickly.  All of the above amounts to a win rate of nearly 9PTBB/100 - ~16 buy ins for the month so far.

An excerpt from my PTR page, winnings & win rate by stake

Going forward, the only thing I would like to change is time.  I'd like to be able to eventually spend more time at the virtual felt to see if I can truly make a consistent coin at this game.  I'm just shy of 23 hours in 13 days, with 9100 hands completed.  9100 hands is what some regs do in a single day!  I've been looking at the top grinder board on PTR - the top regs at 100NL earn $10K+ per month!  I need to get back on track and pump up the volume.  I need to quit my day job.

I leave you with my September graph thus far:

Disturbing for me to look at.  Quite a turnaround.

Sorry for the brag; I'm proud of the fact that I'm no longer a losing 100NL player.  Go me!

What would you do? #178 - Holding third best hand strength facing river shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $58.20
MP1: $67.20
MP2: $42.55 - 75/25/ 10.0AF / 13hands
CO: $50.20
BTN: $17.50
SB: $64.15
Hero (BB): $90.10
UTG: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 9d Td
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero checks
Easy check of my option; suited connectors seeing a flop for free...

Flop: ($1.75) 8c 2s 7s (3 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP2 raises to $3, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.50
OESD on the flop.  Min raised by a suspect MP2.  I think this is a marginal call; a lot of the time these types are on a flush draw...  by that regard, I have 2 overs + 6 clean outs to the straight.

Turn: ($7.75) Js (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $4, MP2 raises to $7.50, Hero calls $3.50
So this was the weird part of the hand; he min bets to induce a raise, which he min raises.  He min raised the flop as well...  What do you make of this?  WTF?

River: ($22.75) 8h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 requests TIME, MP2 bets $31.55 all in, Hero ???
I love the check here because it gets me to showdown cheaply a lot of the time, but it also induces a lot of spaz plays, like it did here.  So what do you do here?  Are you giving him credit?


Click to see results

This player has been so squirrely; I'm not quite sure whether he has a flush (given the min raise on the turn), a boat, or spazzing top pair rivered trips.  Given his [limited] prior history, I have to believe that he's raising wide - therefore, I guess he raises all pocket pairs.  I doubt he's showing up with a set rivered boat.  He could have a 78 combo that rivered a boat, though - so that's a consideration.  The spade flush is the one present in my mind.  I just feel like an overshove is so bluffy by this kind of player...  I'd respect it a heckuvalot more if this were a reg.

Hero calls $31.55

Final Pot: $85.85
MP2 shows 8d Ad (three of a kind, Eights)
Hero shows 9d Td (a straight, Jack high)
Hero wins $82.85
(Rake: $3.00)