What would you do? #212 - Flopped second nut flush facing river raise

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $76.55 - 17/10 / 3.6%3bet / 45% steal / 2.8AF  @ 97 hands
MP2: $50.00
CO: $54.00
BTN: $36.10
Hero (SB): $69.00
BB: $50.75
UTG: $67.10
UTG+1: $24.25
UTG+2: $25.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Kc 9c
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Call with a pump or dump hand.  Easy to get away from, but this player has been fairly active in very recent hands.  Also, we're a little deep, so I feel comfortable with the speculative call.

Flop: ($4.50) Tc Qc 6c (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $2, Hero calls $2, BB folds
Can you say "Yahtzee?"

Turn: ($8.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
Bummer.  He missed the flop entirely.  Suckage.

River: ($8.50) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, MP1 raises to $20.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Okay.  Ace completes quite a few hands - mainly AK.  I lead, expecting a call behind to get a little value on my hand and am greeted with a nice raise.  What do you make of it?



Click to see results

I waffled back & forth between a call or a shove. He seems to be *VERY* interested in this Ace. Given the raise, I can put him on a few hands that beat me, but nothing likely - AcKc, AcQc are obviously not possible. All other AcXc hands are, though, but again, none seem too likely. Sets are clearly possible - particularly rivered set of Aces. However, isn't a set reduced to bluff catcher at this point? Then, I considered the line I took - I have a very concealed flopped flush, and he's not likely to believe that I waited until the river to get value out of it. Therefore I shove and am insta-called by the nut straight :-). GG sir!
Hero raises to $65.50 all in, MP1 calls $45.25

Final Pot: $139.50
MP1 mucks Kh Jc
Hero shows Kc 9c (a flush, King high)
Hero wins $136.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Trip to London, anyone?

I booked my trip to London last week.  I'm going to be arriving at Heathrow at 10pm, January 16th, and leaving at around 4:00pm, January 22.  I'm staying near Farnborough, so it'll be annoying to get to London during the week, but I'm going to try.  Anyone interested in meeting up in one of the London casinos?  I'm planning on going Thursday night, as a minimum.  I'll have a car.

Any of my British readers interested?  HappyPixel, I know you're across the pond...

What would you do? #211 - Snap fold turned TPTK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $99.55 - 14/10 / 7.6%3bet / 20%steal / 10% squeeze attempt / 4.0 AF / 56% lead flop @ 205 hands
MP2: $46.75
CO: $81.15
BTN: $78.25 - 24/5 /0%3bet / 10% steal / 0% squeeze / 0.8 AF / 0% lead flop @ 133 hands
SB: $127.25
BB: $50.00
Hero (UTG): $51.75
UTG+1: $19.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Qh Ac
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 9d 6s 3h (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($5.25) Qs (3 players)
Hero bets $2.75, MP1 raises to $7.50, BTN calls $7.50, Hero ???
A little more detail on MP1:  From the 205 hands I have,  here is his positional AF:

Click to see results

Hero folds

This was SUCH A SNAP fold, it wasn't even funny. What other hands can a 14/10 hand who checks the flop, but suddenly wants stacks, or is trying to get the pot pumped by the turn? Baluga much?

River: ($23.00) 6d (2 players)
MP1 requests TIME, MP1 bets $30, BTN calls $30

Final Pot: $83.00
MP1 shows 9c 9s (a full house, Nines full of Sixes)
BTN mucks Qc Ad
MP1 wins $80.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #210 - Limped Trip Aces facing raise

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $58.45 - 15/12 / 2.6%3bet / 29% steal / 1.9 AF @ 472 hands
Hero (BB): $77.85
UTG: $67.90
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $23.00
MP1: $48.10 - 40/0/ 0%3bet / 0% steal / 0.2 AF @ 124 hands
MP2: $30.00 - 70/0/ 0%3bet / 0% steal / inf AF @ 10 hands
CO: $46.90
BTN: $50.60 - 15/13 / 9.7%3bet / 29% steal / 6.5 AF @ 656 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 3c Ah
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks

Flop: ($3.00) 8h As Ac (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($3.00) 4d (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $3.50, MP2 folds, BTN raises to $11, SB folds, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP1 calls $7.50
I just can't see BTN checking the flop and raising the turn without better Aces or flopped/turned boats. He's raising into a host of players, and 3betting the MP1 raise. It just screams of strong Aces.

River: ($26.75) 9d (2 players)
MP1 checks, BTN bets $39.10 all in, MP1 folds

Final Pot: $26.75
BTN wins $25.45
(Rake: $1.30)

Hands that piss me off: The equity call

Competent reg:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $22.35
BTN: $54.10
Hero (SB): $55.50
BB: $61.15
UTG: $47.80
UTG+1: $50.75
MP1: $66.60
MP2: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Kc Kd
5 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.25, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $16.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $50.25, BB calls $34
Really?  I use TableNinjaFT - it automatically sizes my raises.  While playing 12 tables, I failed to realize that raising to $50.25 was not my full stack.  However, BB flat calls with $5.25 behind!  He clearly sees "raise," "call," or "fold."  Is he playing games with his database where he drops an Ace on the flop and he shoves the remaining $5.25?  It winds up working out way in my favor; I get it in as a 86/14 favorite instead of a 70/30 favorite.  What an idiot. 

Flop: ($102.00) Th 6d 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25 all in, BB calls $5.25

Turn: ($112.50) 6s (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($112.50) Qh (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $112.50
Hero shows Kc Kd (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
BB shows Ks Ad (a pair of Sixes)
Hero wins $109.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #209 - Line check with TPGK

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $59.10
UTG+2: $86.30
MP1: $31.35
MP2: $18.50
CO: $46.45
BTN: $48.75 - 100/0 @ 1 hand
Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $50.00
UTG: $20.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Jc Ah
6 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.00) 6h As 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $5.25, BTN calls $3.75

Turn: ($15.50) 8s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $41.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

Final Pot: $35.50
BTN wins $33.75
(Rake: $1.75)

Thoughts? Am I making too much of this; is this any easy fold or a stupid fold? It just seems like such an polarizing overbet. What do you think?

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What would you do? #208 - TPTK vs. call / 3bet shove on the flop with 2 flush board

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $94.30 - 17/9 /2.3%3bet / 30% steal / 1.5AF / 2.4K hands
CO: $51.75 - 14/9/4.8%3bet/16% steal/ 3.3AF / 969 hands
BTN: $50.00
SB: $57.20
BB: $50.00
UTG: $27.85
UTG+1: $70.30
Hero (UTG+2): $56.00
MP1: $35.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Kh Ah
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($5.25) Ks 8h 6s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $3, CO calls $3, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $8.50, MP2 calls $5.50, CO raises to $50.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP2 folds

I'd imagine that this is a pretty easy laydown; there aren't many draws that he can be on - save for the obvious flush draw. He's clearly not showing up with AsKs, though 9s7s is possible but highly unlikely. More than likely, in this spot, he's looking to get a call out of one of us given my check/raise - I put him on a set of 8's or 6's. FWIW, CO MP2 took quite a while to fold this hand out - I believe he was on a spade draw or some combination thereof.

Final Pot: $30.75
CO wins $29.25
(Rake: $1.50)

Continually reinventing myself...

It's funny; the more I play this game, the more I realize that I don't know squat about playing this game.  As you have probably surmised from my lack of daily posts over the past month or so, I've been a horrendous downswing.

When I moved up to playing 100NL back in September, I experienced the best month of my poker career; BB/100- and winnings- wise.  It was fantastic.  My total win rate for the month was on the order of 8 BB/100, 4 PTBB/100, which I knew was unsustainable, but felt damn good.  I wasn't so much as sucking out, but the hands where I was ahead were holding and I built up a fair amount of positive EV for the month as well.  I was flying high.

Leading into October, the other shoe dropped.  I remember distinctly when it happened; sitting in the airport, waiting for my plane to leave from Portland, Oregon, I decided to utilize the free internet available.  I experienced 2 horrendous all-in suckouts and lost 4 buy-ins in a 30 minute session.  Needless to say, it was all downhill from there; set over sets, 0 equity calls from river suckouts, blah blah blah - as a poker player for any length of time, you know the drill.  I've never had a losing month prior to this past October.  It was not a good feeling - definitely not a feat I want to repeat.  Needless to say, my September wins were wiped away, and I started eating into my yearly profit.

The point of this post is not to brag nor complain; it's to describe where I am right now, as far as my mental state.  It took me dropping back in stakes plus the better part of November to get my head screwed on correctly.  While I was "in search of my poker self," I've come to discover something: in this game, you need to continually reinvent your game.  It's very easy to fall into a cycle where you're comfortable with your game, style, etc.  However, your opponents, if they're good, will adjust to you and pick apart your shortcomings; i.e. no particular style of play is "unexploitable."  If you play tight, then your opponent need open up his game to force folds.  If you play loose, your opponent need trap more often.  If you play aggressive, your opponent should call for value, and if you play weak, your opponent should bet more often.  You get my point.

My new self has changed my game from a 23 / 18 to a 19 / 14.  My new self has changed my won money at showdown from a mid-40% or lower player to a near 50% player.  I'm folding AJo UTG most of the time, along with KQo.  My new self has started table selecting with a lot more scrutiny.  As I come out of this losing stretch, I'm starting to look forward to playing once again.  I'm hungry to win.  I'm working hard to improve my game, rather than just resting on my laurels.

A quick summary of this month and my plan for the future:  I broke even; +$70 for the month.  The next point is more telling, though.  I played around 30K hands this month, 20K of 50NL to close out the month.  My win rate at 50NL for the month was 7.5BB/100, 3.25PTBB/100.  Those numbers should tell you how poorly I performed at 100NL to start the month, and the comeback I made to simply get to break-even.  I am currently owning 50NL, better than I was prior to my departure onto 100NL.  My plan is to continue to play 50NL for the month of December, with the end of December featuring a mix of 50NL and 100NL, rather than isolated to only 100NL.  The idea is that table selection will be easier when I have 2 stakes to choose from, rather than sticking to 100NL solely.  There are plenty of fishy tables at 50NL, but not so much at 100NL.  I am planning on taking my new game to the 100NL players; aiming to maintain my ~50% W$SD rate, with the expectation that if I can flat-line my showdown results, I can reap the profits of forced folds, rather than relying on my forced folds (i.e. won $ without showdown) to offset my W$SD losses.  I'm ready to shot 100NL again.  I belong.

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What would you do? #207 - Deep stacked holding overpair

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $50.00
BB: $49.00
UTG: $72.40 - 15/8/1.7%3bet / 50% steal / 5.5AF / 100% cbet flop
UTG+1: $52.25
Hero (MP1): $122.40 - Note that we're 150BB deep!
MP2: $93.60
CO: $78.65
BTN: $16.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Kc Kd
UTG raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.75) 2h 2s 8h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50

Turn: ($24.75) Jc (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($24.75) 3s (2 players)
UTG bets $60.40 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
I can't imagine him slow playing this way without holding / flopping a set and / or quads. Can I ever call this without the boat?

BTW, my check on the turn is for pot control. I'm not looking to get in stacks here.

The following is copied from the comments below, because I wanted to commit it to the post permanently:

Glad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.

However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.

Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).

The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.

However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...

The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."

Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.

Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.

Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.

The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."

Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.

Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.

Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.

Two final closing remarks:

I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:

ev++ Poker Tools Odds Calculation

I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.

The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.

Smells much more like value than bluff to me...

Final Pot: $24.75
UTG wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)

What would you do? #206 - TPGK against a LAGgy 2/3 pot river bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $50.00
MP2: $51.50
CO: $40.75
BTN: $31.80
SB: $50.00
BB: $65.95 - 35 / 8 / 7.7% 3bet / 17% steal / 2.4AF / 42 hands
UTG: $54.25
Hero (UTG+1): $61.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Qc
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 6h 5d Qs (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BTN folds, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.75) Js (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $5

River: ($29.75) 6d (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
A little background: In the 42 hands, he has yet to check / raise ever. It's just such an odd spot for a check / raise on the turn. Even so, are you making the call on the river?


Click to see results

Hero folds
I just can't see him wanting to stack off with anything less than QJ, which is what I suspect. There are a few draws on the turn, but I can't see him c/r'ing the turn with draws. This is such a marginal fold against a total LAGbot...

Final Pot: $29.75
BB wins $28.30
(Rake: $1.45)