What would you do? #205 - Bluffed off a monster or set over set?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $59.80
UTG: $57.25 - 12/8/ 2.2% 3bet / 21% steal / 2.6AF @ 807 hands
UTG+1: $68.50
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $89.40
Hero (MP2): $52.90
CO: $40.15
BTN: $70.15
SB: $21.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Qh Qc
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds
I flat here, somewhat to set mine, somewhat knowing that I have position. My thought by flatting is that he's folding hands that I beat, and 4betting hands that beat me.  A 12/8 raising UTG is a fairly strong move.  He cbets 24% of his hands, FWIW.

Flop: ($4.75) 3h Qd Ts (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $5
By his cbet lead, I'm assuming he has a good hand, so I want to raise for value. Also, in the off chance he's on a straight draw, I want to ensure that I charge him for his draw.  I'm not looking to blow him off of his gutshot / 2 overs hands.  I feel strongly that he'd come over the top if he flopped a set of Tens.

Turn: ($20.75) Ad (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12
Worst card in the deck (coupled with the Jack)! He calls the flop raise, indicating a pretty specific range of hands (i.e. AA, KK, TT, AK), and donks the turn. WTF? Should I be laying this hand down, or am I in for the stacks?  Perhaps the setup for the WWYD is right here.  Assuming the river is a non-Jack, the river card will not change anything in relation to the hand.

River: ($44.75) 2c (2 players)
UTG bets $35.25 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $30.90 all in
At this point, I believe my hand is a bluff catcher. I don't think he's doing this with AK. I just can't see him raising in EP with KJ, and I don't think he's pushing with AA and the possible straight out there. I think he's bet / calling, but not shipping.  I also think he's check / raising the turn with AA rather than donking.  Therefore, I make the call thinking I beat bluffs and flopped sets of Ten (less likely) vs. losing to the turned 2-outter AA set.

Final Pot: $106.55
UTG shows Js Jd (a pair of Jacks)
Hero shows Qh Qc (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero wins $103.55
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #204 - Give ze man his moneyz?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $50.50
Hero (CO): $97.55
BTN: $17.50
SB: $48.50
BB: $39.20 - 40/1/0%3bet / 0%steal / 2.3AF / 68 hands
UTG: $20.00
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $15.00
MP1: $58.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Qs Ad
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) Tc 5h Qh (2 players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6.50, BB calls $4

Turn: ($16.25) 5s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

River: ($34.25) 5d (2 players)
BB bets $22.20 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $22.20

Final Pot: $78.65
Hero mucks Qs Ad
BB shows Kd Kc (a full house, Fives full of Kings)
BB wins $75.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #203 - Deep stacked with an unknown facing a turn overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $124.10
BB: $26.60
UTG: $31.30
UTG+1: $180.05
UTG+2: $40.85
MP1: $76.95 - 38/13/1.0AF @ 8 hands
MP2: $94.80
Hero (CO): $84.80
BTN: $151.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ad Kh
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($9.75) 7d As 6c (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $5, MP1 calls $5

Turn: ($19.75) 6s (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12.50, MP1 raises to $67.45 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???



Click to see results

Hero calls $54.95
My thought is this: I have 8 hands on the guy , and this is a pretty dry flop. If he hit a set of 7's or 6's on the flop, so be it, but is he overbet shoving the turn for value? More than likely, he's min raising, or 2.5x with the intention of shoving the river instead.

I also started thinking about 6x hands, but I think it fairly unlikely for him to continue to my decent flop lead... Unlikely, though not unheard of. Therefore, I certainly considered the 6x hands as well, but ruled them out for the same reason of the set type hands.

Summed up, I make the call for the deep stacks.

River: ($154.65) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $154.65
MP1 shows Ac 4c (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero shows Ad Kh (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $151.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #202 - Overbet for value

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $119.10
UTG+1: $53.60
UTG+2: $45.20
MP1: $62.55
MP2: $58.60
CO: $40.00
BTN: $129.20
Hero (SB): $112.95
BB: $51.85 - 13 / 8 / 1.6%3bet / 25% steal / 2.7 AF / 725 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ts 9d
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) 8d Qc 6h (3 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25, MP2 folds

Turn: ($4.00) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB raises to $5.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $4.75
I think he pretty clearly has a set at this point. Set or two pair; I don't think he's folding either way.

River: ($24.00) Kd (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $101.20 all in, BB calls $40.10 all in
And I hit him with the overbet.

Final Pot: $104.20
Hero shows Ts 9d (a straight, Ten high)
BB mucks 8h 8s
Hero wins $101.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #201 - Bet / fold or check / fold?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $189.95
UTG: $54.15
UTG+1: $69.45
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $20.75
Hero (MP2): $90.90
CO: $48.40
BTN: $50.00 - 15 / 12 / 5.2% 3bet / 20% steal / 7% sqz / 2.9AF @ 235 hands
SB: $26.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Jd Kd
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BTN raises to $3.75, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($8.25) 6d Ah 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($8.25) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

River: ($18.25) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $41.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
The question is did I simply waste $10 or is this a insta-fold? I think the hand starts off screwed up where I call the 3bet, but this guy's 3bet on the button was around 10%.

Final Pot: $38.25
BTN wins $36.35
(Rake: $1.90)

What would you do? #200 - Paired board + 3flush to strong river bet

Been busy with work lately; sorry for the lack of posts.  As a result, I've been playing Rush quite a bit.  Here's a hand for you:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $40.00
CO: $119.25 - 11/8/4.4% 3bet/ 21 %steal / 1.9AF @ 200 hands
BTN: $43.25
SB: $221.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $355.75
UTG+1: $167.95
UTG+2: $75.70
MP1: $49.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Qd Qh
Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 8c 5c Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($35.50) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($35.50) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
No idea about this one. I'm beating bluffs, clearly. Is this guy calling PF with Tx? I don't think so. Is he calling with AKc or some such combo? Perhaps. It just feels much more like a value bet coming from this guy. Check raise the flop with 2 overs + flush draw. Check through the turn for a freebie. Yada yada yada...

Final Pot: $35.50
CO wins $33.75
(Rake: $1.75)

What would you do? #199 - Pocket Aces facing strong action

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $132.95 - 13 / 10 / 4.1% 3bet / 19% steal / 3.4AF @ 896 hands
BB: $100.00
UTG: $82.05
UTG+1: $70.10
UTG+2: $194.75
Hero (MP1): $100.50
MP2: $131.45
CO: $111.90
BTN: $108.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Ac As
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.00) 8d Kc 2h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.00) 3h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $22, Hero calls $13
Baluga Theorem?

River: ($58.00) Qs (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Simple read; do you make the call here?


Click to see results

Hero calls $45
I'm going through a spell where I just can't get my big hands to stick.  It's a bad state to be in; I never know whether I'm folding the best hand because I'm just being run over, or they're actually out-flopping me.  As is, it seems as though every time I make the hero call, I'm shown the nuts, so WTF?!?!?!?

Final Pot: $148.00
SB shows 2c 2s (three of a kind, Twos)
Hero mucks Ac As
SB wins $145.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #198 - Deep stacked with Kings up

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $214.80 - 33/23 / 5.3% 3bet / 50%steal / 3.1 AF @ 149 hands - this is his 4th raise in a row, and he's taken it down each time.
MP1: $182.80
MP2: $90.65
CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $235.60
SB: $98.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $200.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Kh Kc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $11, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $8

Flop: ($23.50) 5d 5h 9h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $23.50, Hero calls $23.50

Turn: ($70.50) 3h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $180.30 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $180.30
This is a player who is capable of a lot of things.  Moreover, he's getting huge implied odds to make a call with just about any two cards.  What I'm hugely concerned with is the random 5's that he may hold.  That said, I don't think I can lay an overpair... any overpair... down vs. this player.

River: ($431.10) Qd (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $431.10
UTG+1 shows 9s Js (two pair, Nines and Fives)
Hero shows Kh Kc (two pair, Kings and Fives)
Hero wins $428.10
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #197 - Aces facing turn shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $104.00
UTG: $35.00
UTG+1: $98.30 - 18/6 / 0% 3bet / 15% steal / 1.4 AF / 142 hands
UTG+2: $99.00
MP1: $40.00
Hero (MP2): $101.95
CO: $116.75
BTN: $133.90
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ah Ac
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $7

Flop: ($19.50) Qh 9s Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $19.50, Hero calls $19.50

Turn: ($58.50) Td (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $69.80 all in, Hero folds
He has to have JJ, QQ or KK.  Crappy 3bet on my part, but he raised so small that raising to $10 would have looked funny.

Final Pot: $58.50
UTG+1 wins $55.60
(Rake: $2.90)

What would you do? #196 - Flopped trips check raised on the turn

Still running terrabad, though I'm playing FAR better.  Results don't show it, of course.  I keep running into suckouts, variance, etc.  Still down 10+ buy-ins in expected value...

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $124.60
UTG+1: $77.90
MP1: $119.50
MP2: $135.50
CO: $139.25 - 11/8 / 2.4%3bet / 22% steal / 2.3 AF
BTN: $122.00
SB: $156.20 - 16/9/2.3%3bet / 25% steal / 1.9 AF
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Qd
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, CO raises to $9, 1 fold, SB calls $8.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($28.00) 9c Qh Qc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
I fully expect CO to lead here, ready to c/r him.  Fail!

Turn: ($28.00) 5c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, CO calls $25, SB raises to $128, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

I lead out here to charge for the 4th club; when I get check / raised all in, I'm in a quandry...  I have to be beat, right?


Click to see results

Hero folds, CO raises to $130.25 all in, SB calls $2.25

River: ($313.50) 5h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $313.50
CO shows Kc Ac (a flush, Ace high)
SB shows 4c 3c (a flush, Queen high)
CO wins $310.50
(Rake: $3.00)

WBCOOP 2010

I will be partaking, will you?

Changin' it up for a change?

After I busted out in the Mookie (last out of 5 total, LDO), I decided to try my hand at another game.  A little background: I know nothing about any other games than NLHE / PLHE.  I'd venture to say that I've played stud before; played draw before, etc., but I am far more comfortable with Hold'em.

Well, I wasn't ready to pack it in for the evening; my wife hosted Majong - and was still hosting- but I didn't quite feel like hitting the tables again (I've been running terrabad; down 10 buy-ins in EV this month), and had just eeked out a profit of $13 against an EV expected $180.  I decided to check out a game that would be similar in style, but far different in play - Stud Hi.  All I can say is "wow."  Obviously, at this level, there isn't very fierce competition (I played the lowest of the low, $0.05/$0.10), but the players were terrible, and I actually had a good time.  I felt like I had some semblance of knowing what I'm doing; I was able to play draws and hands fairly well.  I was able to read other players, etc.  It was an interesting game, without a doubt.

I wound up winning $3.50 in the 40-some-odd hands that I played; a decent run for those stakes, I'd estimate.  I don't know that I'm ready to become a stud player, but it's nice to know that this game is here for a nice past-time.