Simply redic!

Warning: More whining. This month has absolutely sucked so far. Negative variance continues to bite me in the ass (after last night, my all in luck has gone to $-310). I am now down a flat buy in on the month. I take solace in the fact that all is not lost; I am earning unprecedented rakeback dollars, more than pushing me in the black for the month. However, it truly sucks that I cannot get anything going for the last 15 days. Perhaps tonight will be the turn around?

(Note: TheHandConverter.com is currently unavailable)
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
7 Players
Convert hands with our http://www.handhq.com/poker-hand-converter/?aff=WTC.

UTG 62.15
UTG+1 38.80
MP 50
CO 49.10
BTN 8.25
HERO (SB) 42.90
BB 48.70

Pre-Flop (0.75, 7 players)
Hero is SB with cA sA

UTG raises to 1.50 (60.65), 3 folds, BTN calls 1.50 (6.75), HERO raises to 6.50 (36.15), 1 fold, UTG calls 5 (55.65), BTN folds (6.75)

Flop (15, 2 players)
s9 s6 d4

HERO bets 15 (21.40), UTG goes all-in 55.65 (0.00), HERO goes all-in 21.40 (0.00)
Spade draw out on the board, but I have the As backdoor. I have to assume that this player has an overpair and it will be incredibly hard for him to get away. I am correct.

Turn (107.05, 2 players)
cQ

River (107.05, 2 players)
s7

Final Pot: 107.05

HERO shows
cA sA

UTG shows
sQ dQ Gotta love the two outter.

UTG wins 104.05 ( won +41.90 )

BTN lost -1.50
HERO lost -42.90

-------------------------------------------

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
http://www.handhq.com/poker-hand-converter/?aff=WTC.

UTG 46.15
UTG+1 15.60
MP1 50
MP2 38.80
CO 51.20
BTN 50
HERO (SB) 49.50
BB 50

Pre-Flop (0.75, 8 players)
Hero is SB with hK cK

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 1.75 (13.85), 1 fold, MP2 calls 1.75 (37.05), 2 folds, HERO raises to 5.25 (44.00), 1 fold, UTG+1 calls 3.50 (10.35), MP2 folds (37.05)

Flop (12.75, 2 players)
s3 d6 s9

HERO bets 10.35 (33.90), UTG+1 goes all-in 10.35 (0.00)
Another spade draw; Either UTG+1 is calling or folding; he's not going to fold any pairs or overcards in my opinion. As per the prior post, I put the strong bet into action (even though a $12.75 pot means he's committed from the pre flop). I clearly am not folding to any street, so I may as well take the offensive and shove while I'm sure I'm good. I am correct in my statement.

Turn (33.45, 2 players)
s2

River (33.45, 2 players)
h5

Final Pot: 33.45

UTG+1 shows
sJ sK Of course. I love running bad. KJ > KK... G-d bless!

HERO shows
hK cK

UTG+1 wins 31.80 ( won +16.20 )

MP2 lost -1.75
HERO lost -15.60

Every Hand Tells a Story

Poker is about making the best decisions with the greatest frequency. Anybody can play the nuts or fold with 3 high when facing a bet on the river. It is everything in between which defines our style of play and success. We will constantly be faced with scenarios where we really don't know whether we're way ahead or way behind, we just know it's one or the other. Getting back to our orinigal premise of making the most correct decisions is where we become long-term focused as opposed to results-oriented.

Our opponents can be just as sneaky as we are. They can limp with AA, min-raise us with the nuts or take many different lines to bluff us. Often times we won't have the nuts and we enter into scenarios where we could be putting our entire stack on the line if we continue with our hand. However, when in a difficult spot without the nuts we need to always evaluate the storyboard of a hand or session.

Recently, I was involved in a hand where an opponent put me in a difficult spot at the river. Now some may say that this spot wasn't at all difficult and that my move was to insta-call. However, in the games that I play ($25NL) more often than not, players over-bet the nuts as opposed to over-bet bluff. Based on this I am generally cautious when someone has shoved or over-bet me.

Here is the hand:

CO: $25.37
BTN: $19.78
SB: $29.50
Hero (BB): $24.65
UTG: $5.12
UTG+1: $25.00
MP1: $11.12
MP2: $8.32
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 4d 8d
5 folds, BTN calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) 9s 7c Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

I flop a gut-shot straight draw that could be counterfeited by KQ, but I would expect the button to raise pre-flop with KQ. I rationalize that floating for one BB is worthwhile to see a turn because there are many cards that could help my hand including any diamond or a 10.

Turn: ($1.10) 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50

I turn a 4-flush and still have my gut-shot straight draw which I'm now assuming would be good if I hit it. I elect to make a blocking bet which achieves the following:
1) I take the pot down right there with '8' high
2) I get called and make a nice 3/4 pot bet on the river if I hit or 2/3 pot if an overcard comes
3) I get raised off my hand and know that I'm most likely way behind and cannot continue because of the poor price I'm getting out of position.

Villain decides to min-raise me, which solidifies my assumption that my outs are most likely live. If the villain had KQ or a 4-flush I'd expect him to flat-call while in position so he doesn't get run out of the pot with a hand with good showdown value. I happily call his min raise.

River: ($3.10) Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BTN raises to $18.28 all in, Hero requests TIME

Not quite the nuts, but still gives me a hand that can beat a lot of other hands like two pair or a set. I decided that a small bet designed to look like a bluff would yield the greatest expectation from this hand because it allows the villain to try to raise me off my hand. This is exactly what occurred and the button shoved all in.

This is where I need to get as much information as I possibly can about my opponent before making a fatal error. Is it possible for my opponent to have KQ or Q8--the two hands that beat me? Yes, it certainly is. Would my opponent bet the flop with either of these hands? A min bet--probably. Would my opponent raise the turn with either one of these hands? Most likely not. Would he shove the river as he did? My gut feeling is probably not and that he would go for a big bet but not a complete shove here. However, not wanting to get stacked with 3rd nuts when it is entirely possible for the villain to have 1st or 2nd nuts, I resorted to the last piece of information I had --> 'Last Hand'.

Because I did not have PokerTracker installed on my machine, I didn't have the luxury of seeing statistics of the villain. So I quickly scrolled through the 12 hands that I've observed while at the table. Here is a brief transcript:

Hand No. 1: Villain was active but no HH
Hand No. 2: Villain was active but no HH
Hand No. 5: Villain gets it all-in pre-flop with AKo and loses to 88. Total Pot = $14
Hand No. 7: Villain limped pre-flop, bet the flop and took down the pot = $0.81
Hand No. 8: Villain flat-called a 4x pre-flop and folded when two players got it all in on the flop
Hand No. 9: Villain limped and folded to a bet on the flop
Hand No. 11: Villain limps pre-flop, calls a pot size bet on the flop and folds to a bet on the turn
Hand No. 12: The current hand

So my read is this is an active player who recently flipped with AK and lost 28BB. While he showed a premium hand in defeat, he has shown activity recently, most likely due to tilt or steaming. He has been limping frequently and looking to find a spot to quickly 'win it all back'. Based on all of these factors, I reason that he is capable of bluffing or overplaying many hands here. I don't think his story makes sense and I elect to call the huge over-bet shove on the river.

Hero calls $17.53

Final Pot: $39.66
BTN shows 3s Ah (Ace Jack high)
Hero shows 4d 8d (a straight, Jack high)
Hero wins $37.68
(Rake: $1.98)

The cbet & the pre-flop raise

I picked up two interesting tidbits last night while I was watching the trulyfreepokertraining.com I received as part of my 5500 points that I earned last month. I was given a 1 month free access to CardRunners.com online video training, which is awesome... So far, it's very good stuff. If you are not signed up for this service (and there is absolutely no cost for it), then you are doing yourself a disservice; you can receive increments of 1 week access for portions of 5500 points earned during that month. Disclaimer: I get no benefit or compensation for writing the above paragraph.

Anyway, in the one 45 minute video I watched (ghosting a guy ("Put me in coach Part 1" by schaffem111) who was replaying his 4 table session at a 6 max table), I was able to pick up on two items that have provided me instant profitability. Both have to do with bet sizes:

• Betting high VPIPs who call/call

Every so often (at $50NL, almost every night), you will come across a player who has a VPIP above 40, and is limping many pre flops to see a flop and fold. Sometimes, these players will limp and call a raise. These types of players should become your best friends. They are milking machines, and you should be raising them every time you have good cards (in other words, you should never allow them to a limp a hand where you will be involved; play your game, but more aggressive with less limp, more raise). I get that - and I have known that fact for some time; I don't want to see a flop without juicing the pot with a guy that has two randoms. However, what I never really thought about was the bet sizing and the limp / caller. Here is a player that so desperately wants to see a flop, and he is willing to pay terrible odds, "just to see." What was suggested during the video was to raise to isolate, and raise a goodly amount.

For example, let's put you in MP and loose player in UTG position, at $50NL with full stacks (100 BBs). Generally, he limps and you raise a standard 3x + 1BB per limper. If you are doing that, you are not maximizing the value of the hand, pre flop. Instead of raising 3x, pop it to something like 4x + 1BB per limper. You know this guy is going to come along to see the flop, so why not get extra value, especially when you know you are CRUSHING his range? As with any pre-flop raised pot, you clearly need to re-evaluate the situation based on the flopped cards, but you have an extra bet in the middle that you ordinarily would not have.

Be careful with this idea though; this is for combating loose players who have a tendency to fold to cbets. If your donkey has a flop game, then I would suggest to adapt accordingly; you don't want to be constantly put to a decision and find yourself in awkward spots.

At any rate, I was definitely able to utilize this strategy last night to increase my profitability when I had position over a 74/18/1.6... We were both deep stacks at the table (I had ~$80 and he had ~$140) and I would continually raise his limps to $3 or more to isolate him, and then steal on the flop.

• Betting out a high $$$ amount because they're either going to call or not

The other point I took away from the videos is betting for value on a dry board (an example is when you hold AK and the flop is A 5 9, etc.). When you know your opponent's range of cards, you should consider putting in a nice cbet, instead of 1/2 to 2/3 - the idea is that he is either calling or not. If he's a donkey who plays Ax, or someone who is only calling a raise with AJ+, he is not generally going to consider the size of the cbet in order to make a call; if he has AQ, AJ, AT, he is calling, PERIOD. He is not folding based on you betting pot vs. you betting half pot. I thought that was an interesting insight. I'm not sure if I'll be able to apply it; I need to watch for situations when I can use it... however it makes for playing for stacks much easier.

What would you do? #10

I have been taking the trulyfreepokertraining.com I received as part of my 5500 points that I earned last month via CardRunners videos (actually I've watched 1 video). In one of the videos, there were two things I picked up: don't give players with a small hand history a ton of credit, and another point which I will get into in another post.

Back to the hand: I have virtually no history on the villain. 0/0 @ 7 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/323628
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $24.45
BB: $63.40
Hero (UTG): $52.55
UTG+1: $19.50
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $20.35
CO: $10.00
BTN: $37.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Qs Qd
Hero raises to $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, MP1 raises to $6, 5 folds, Hero calls $4.25, 1 fold
Am I set mining QQ? This is a sizable 3 bet and MP1 had not been involved in a hand prior to now (though 7 hands is hardly a sample size). I consider folding right here, but after careful thought, I decide to take a flop to see where we go.

Flop: ($14.50) Ah 5s Ad (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $7, Hero calls $7
Is this a terrible flop? Out of position, it probably is. MP1 leads out for half pot; is he really doing this with AK or AA or AQ (FAR LESS LIKELY BECAUSE I HOLD 2 QUEENS)? I expect a check through if he flopped quads or trips simply based on the fact that he's hoping I "catch up." This half pot bet smells like he's trying to push me off the pot.

Turn: ($28.50) 6c (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP1 folds
As I snap called the flop, I thought for a moment: If I check, he likely does not hold an A, and will check behind, based on my c/c on the flop. He's as afraid of the A as I am... Therefore, I make a quick probing bet here on the turn (turning my hand into a semi-bluff); a bet large enough that he will not call without an Ace, but small enough that I am not setting myself up to go broke. At this point, there is a little less than half my stack in the middle. If he raises here, I can get away from the hand. If he calls here, I c/c this down to see a showdown. I think he's equally scared of me, and at this point I believe he has KK, QQ or JJ.

Final Pot: $28.50
Hero wins $27.10
(Rake: $1.40)

FRUSTRATION

Frustration is...

Frustration is... Getting it all in WAY ahead only to find out that your opponent hit a 2 outter on the flop setting your profit for the night from +40 within 125 hands to -10:

CO: $16.35
BTN: $8.50
korser (SB): $22.40
OmasSparstrumpf (BB): $10.00
UTG: $54.10
Hero (UTG+1): $54.55
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $83.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with As Ac
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, BTN raises to $8.50 all in, 2 folds, UTG calls $8, Hero raises to $18, UTG raises to $48, Hero raises to $54.55 all in, UTG calls $6.10 all in

Flop: ($117.45) 8d 6d 4d

Turn: ($117.45) Qc

River: ($117.45) Qs

Final Pot: $117.45
BTN shows Kc Ah (a pair of Queens)
UTG shows 6c 6s (a full house, Sixes full of Queens) - Really? Shoving pre flop with 66?
Hero shows As Ac (two pair, Aces and Queens)
UTG wins $89.50
UTG wins $24.95
(Rake: $3.00)

Frustration is... When the donkeys hit every single card that they need, then min betting?

Hero (CO): $52.05
BTN: $51.25
SB: $49.50
BB: $16.00
UTG: $28.90
UTG+1: $30.60
UTG+2: $18.95
MP1: $51.20
MP2: $52.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Kc Qh
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, 3 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.25) 7c 3d Qc (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $2, Hero raises to $6, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $4

Turn: ($15.25) 9s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $5, UTG+1 calls $4.50
Not so happy with my turn bet; should have been more, but I probably saved myself money.

River: ($25.25) 9c (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
You make the flush and then you min bet? LOL! Good value!!

Final Pot: $26.25
Hero mucks Kc Qh
UTG+1 shows 3c Tc (a flush, Queen high) - Good PF raise, and calling of a 3bet! Glad you got paid for your risk... a whole $0.50!!!
UTG+1 wins $24.95
(Rake: $1.30)

Frustration is... when you find yourself in for more than a buy in, midway through the night due to variance

Frustration is... when you finally work your way back to positive a half buy in (which sets you to in the black for the month), only to get sucked out on once again & find yourself in the hole again

Frustration is... when you ONCE again work your way to marginally positive, another donkey stacks you on a suckout

Vindication is... despite all of the frustration, showing a [marginal] profit for the night, despite getting thrown the best that variance can throw your way

Not that it helps, but I looked up my all-in pot equity calculations from Hold'em Luck, and found that this month I'm running $-245 in all in situations. Joy.

Oh dear...

This is indicative of how I've been running lately. The villain is 54/27 @ 26 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/323222
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $33.50
MP: $23.45
Hero (CO): $54.70
BTN: $136.85
SB: $9.50
BB: $47.50
UTG: $9.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ts Tc
2 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $5, 3 folds

Flop: ($12.75) Qh As Th (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $27.75, Hero raises to $49.70 all in, BTN calls $21.95
There is just no way that he shows up with a KJ here. If he does, I have a ton of outs though. Am I wrong in the way I play this here? Very scary board - should I be getting it all in here or should I be calling the BTN raise and seeing a turn?

Turn: ($112.15) Kh (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($112.15) Jd (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $112.15
Hero shows Ts Tc (a straight, Ace high)
BTN shows 9h Ah (a flush, Ace high) - What bullshit. Not only does he hit his damn card on the turn, but if he doesn't have a flush draw, then we're splitting. This pot hurt.
BTN wins $109.15
(Rake: $3.00)

Good bluff catch!

I rarely am able to call with Ace high. However, the UTG is just killing me with stealing pots away on the river in prior action (35 hands total though). UTG is 55/14/2.3. I decide to take a stand and I find that I'm good.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/323938
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $37.45
BB: $49.50
UTG: $67.60
UTG+1: $44.75
UTG+2: $11.15
MP1: $11.15
MP2: $19.25
CO: $52.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with As Kc
UTG raises to $1.75, 6 folds, Hero raises to $5.75, 1 fold, UTG calls $4
I'm trying to get more aggressive by 3 betting. I have a top 5 hand, so I will 3 bet this in and out of position on most occasions.

Flop: ($12.00) 4s Th 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $5.75, UTG calls $5.75
Standard cbet - 2 spades and it is certainly plausible that the villain is on a spade draw, given his playing 55% of hands.

Turn: ($23.50) 9h (2 players)
Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10
Doesn't change anything; I would prefer to take this pot down right here & now.

River: ($43.50) Qd (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $15.95, Hero calls $15.95 all in
I have showdown value, but definitely don't like the Q. However, I call figuring I need to be right about once every three times (4:1 odds on call). In addition, given the way he played this hand, I believe he's playing a missed flush draw. Finally, the reality is that I was committed on the turn. $16 more is not going to get a fold out of me.

Final Pot: $75.40
Hero shows As Kc (Ace King high)
UTG shows Jh Ah (Ace Queen high) - not even a flush draw, just Ace / Jack high! LOL.
Hero wins $72.40
(Rake: $3.00)

Turnaround for October!

It's too early to declare victory, but in an early morning session, I've gutted my $270 deficit for the month down to a $130 deficit. Nice session of 347 hands, where [positive] variance FINALLY caught up with me! As is usual, I hit a 5 -8 buy in skid & stop posting.

It stinks, but the losses make posting to this blog not so much fun. I'm not sure whether that's a bad thing; I write to analyze my hands, but if I'm running bad, there is no real analysis that needs to take place. I've written complaint posts before and they're kind of just useless rants. Anyway, here's to more interesting hands in the future where my AA < 53s & my flopped sets < straights & flushes...

2008 WSOP boat over boat situation What would you do? #9

Found this clip from Sept 17th's posting on Bill Rini's blog - a clip from the 2008 WSOP. The hand is good in so far as the thought going into it. However, I disagree with Matusow that he would be going broke on this hand. I think, at worst, Geller is making a call with the lower boat - which is the impressive part of the whole transaction (he folds!).

Look at the hand: Raise PF, 2 flats behind. Both Romanello & Geller flop sets and play it like they flopped sets; it's a pretty bad all-broadway flop (QJ flopped nuts), but they play it safe by check / check / checking it on the flop. When the T comes out, neither of them can be happy, making any Q the nuts on the turn. If one of the three are holding the Q, they are guaranteed to be betting out here, because there's not much value they can expect from a single river bet, given the way the 3 have played out the hand thus far. When the T pairs the board and Gellers gets raised to his lead out, the only hands Gellers can put Romanello on are AA, KK, QQ (straight), TT (for the quads). If any of the players had AK, QJ, they would be betting on the flop / turn - for value - and protection. However, both Gellers & Romanello are hoping each other (and Matusow) catch up or are potentially way ahead... By the river, clearly AA, KK & TT are winners, QQ is a loser. Is Romanello really raising a SCARY board like this with a straight, or two pair? All of the above (AA, KK, TT, AK) are "plausible" PF raising hands, but I'd have to put Romanello on AA / KK / less likely TT after the raise and speech. Therefore, Gellers [correctly] surmises that he is beat, and [correctly] lays it down.

Had it been me, I likely would have opted to call the raise, thus losing an additional bet. No question: it was a GREAT laydown. However, going broke on this hand IN A TOURNAMENT, no less, hardly...

The Poker Meister #-2 - I got pwned!

Is my luck running out with this hand?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/316071
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $37.00
BTN: $26.45
SB: $48.65
BB: $16.00
UTG: $13.05
UTG+1: $46.35
MP: $20.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Js 9s
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 3 folds
The only question is whether to raise or smooth. Having no history (0 hands) on UTG, I opt to call.

Flop: ($2.75) 2c 5s 4s (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50
2 spades? HA! Of course, I'm going to get there!

Turn: ($5.75) Jd (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.55, UTG raises to $10.55 all in, Hero calls $7
Probably good enough; If not, I always have the flush draw as well.

River: ($26.85) 8c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $26.85
Hero shows Js 9s (a pair of Jacks)
UTG shows 4h 4c (three of a kind, Fours)
UTG wins $25.55
(Rake: $1.30)
Yuck. The Poker Meister has failed me...

There Will Be Winners and There Will Be Losers - Which Will You Be?

Let's face it- most people that play poker aren't winning players. Aside from the fact that poker is a negative sum game because of rake, there will always be an elite group of players whose long-term performance exceeds the rest of the population; perhaps an 80/20 split between winning to losing players. So why does this occur when in the long-run all players see the same cards from the same position the same amount of times? Here are some reasons:

-Purpose: People play for a variety of reasons including to escape daily stresses, to socialize, for competition, for adrenaline or excitement, because they have a gambling problem and of course to make money. For most people it will be for a variety of reasons [see the Psychology of Poker by Alan Schoonmaker for more discussion on this topic]. The truth is that most people, even winning players, would be better off taking a part time job at a fast food restaurant as a second source of income than trying to grind it out at the tables. Those that are committed to making money as the number one reason for why they play will be more likely to win than those that simply enjoy splashing chips into pots over a few cold ones.

-Technical Play: People who are committed to reviewing hand histories and discussing betting lines on forums are more likely to experience improvements and profits in their game.

-Fearlessness/Aggression: Those that understand that selective aggression is an asset to a player's arsenal are able to utilize various types of equity irrespective of their cards. For example, in tournaments good players have a lot of survival equity which is why they tend not to put their entire stack on the line early in tournament even with hands as strong as combo-draws and small sets. In cash games players often have significant fold equity before committing 1/3 of their stack to a pot. Sophisticated cash game players understand that every hand has a certain amount of steal quity [even pocket aces] and a raise or re-raise in certain spots could turn a non-profitable hand into a profitable one. You can win a pot two ways: by betting/raising or showing down the best hand. Passive players never experience the advantages of aggression and the ability to win without the best hand.

-Reciprocality [Tommy Angelo]: I highly recommend reading Tommy Angelo's theory of Reciprocality which basically states that poker is a war on all fronts. It's a war of information, bluffing, folding, maximizing, acting, tilting, bankroll management, position, etc. His theory also states that poker can be broken down to many elements [some having greater importance than others] and the goal is to perform each better than your opponents. For example, if I know you never bluff all-in on the river, I never have to worry about making a good fold when you shove the river. If I know that you are likely to call with very light holdings [calling station], I will choose to value-bet you as opposed to bluff you since it is unlikely for me to turn a profit by bluffing you. It is these types of small battles where edges are born.

Phil Ivey said it took him 2 years before he became a winning player. For those that have beat his record, kudos to you because you're on the right track. Stay disciplined and constantly challenge yourself to be a better player.

For those that aren't quite there yet think about your overall approach to poker and consider the following:

-Am I willing to make winning money as my number objective?
-Have I tried any poker coaching or mentoring sites?
-Do I regularly review hand histories with others?
-Do I contribute to and read through poker-related forums, blogs and websites?
-Do I have a network of people that I can receive honest and sound advice from?

Data mining on Full Tilt & PokerStars from Gugel!

Let me start by saying - I'm a big Gugel fanboy. He has only further enhanced his reputation with the following:

During the past 2-3 weeks, Gugel over at AnskyPoker.com has gathered statistics (which I view as critical to play) on the two main sites, Full Tilt & PokerStars.

He started with an estimation of difficulty in moving up in stakes, where he looked at how many hands are played by a player, ultimately getting to a heads up situation. The end result heads up situation yields the difficulty of the level. I'm not convinced this is the optimal way of looking at it - check out the post for details - but it certainly is better than anything else out there that I'm aware of...

Next, he took a look at average pot sizes between PokerStars & Tilt to determine which is a "looser" site. I believe this is a good way of viewing the difficulty of each site, because the more money / pot, ideally the more players / flop. I don't know whether the data was available, but it would seem a combination of plrs / flop + money / pot would be a more accurate depiction, but certainly, money / pot seems like a very good way as an isolated variable. What I would like to see is a view of each game (i.e. HU, 6 max & full ring NL/PL HE). Whether he's able to extract that data, I don't know - but this is certainly unique data.

Finally, he recently posted data on the best time of day to play. The results were somewhat surprising; the times to play were skewed towards east coast prime time. I would have expected to see European prime time hours (approx. 2:00PM-5:00PM EST), but the data does not seem to support that theory. Anyway, if you are serious about your poker, as I am, go check out his posts... Definitely quick and refreshing reads - in addition, check out the rest of his site; very interesting stuff in there...