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Episode 435: Carlota Gonzalez
3 days ago
I can't imagine him slow playing this way without holding / flopping a set and / or quads. Can I ever call this without the boat?
BTW, my check on the turn is for pot control. I'm not looking to get in stacks here.
The following is copied from the comments below, because I wanted to commit it to the post permanently:
Glad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.
However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.
Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).
The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.
However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."
Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.
Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.
Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.
Two final closing remarks:
I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:
ev++ Poker Tools Odds Calculation
I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.
The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.
Smells much more like value than bluff to me...
Final Pot: $24.75
UTG wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)